Polymarket

09/02/2026

Vice President JD Vance drew criticism after mistakenly saying the U.S. was about to “celebrate” the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks during a campaign rally in Sterling Heights, Michigan, on Monday.

Vance quickly corrected himself, saying the country would instead “commemorate” the anniversary.

Clips of the remarks spread rapidly on social media, where critics argued that the wording was inappropriate given the solemn nature of the anniversary.

Traders predict a 25% chance JD Vance will with the 2028 Presidential Election.

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09/01/2026

09/01/2026

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez suggested building an AI data center near President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort after he said communities opposing the facilities risk becoming “backwards and poor.”

Her remarks came after Palm Beach County recently rejected a proposal for another AI data center in the area, though one already operates less than two miles from Mar-a-Lago.

Traders predict an 20% chance AOC will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.

09/01/2026

NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will study dark energy, dark matter and exoplanets by surveying billions of galaxies and tracking supernovae.

Its 300-megapixel infrared camera has a field of view about 100 times larger than Hubble’s, allowing Roman to rapidly map the sky and search for Earth-like planets using gravitational microlensing.

Traders predict a 12% chance that Google & SpaceX will agree to put data centers in space by December 31.

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09/01/2026

The Pentagon has rolled out custom versions of ChatGPT and Grok to its 3 million civilian and military staff, adapting the models for “warfighter needs.”

ChatGPT Mil and Grok for Government join Google Gemini on the Pentagon’s GenAI.mil platform, which is already used by 1.7 million personnel.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also said he could not confirm that a human would always intervene before AI is used in lethal action.

Traders predict only an 11% chance the U.S. will enact an AI safety bill this year.

09/01/2026

President Donald Trump shared an AI-generated video depicting the destruction of Iran’s Kharg Island, a strategic oil hub, writing that it was “being blown to smithereens.”

The post came hours after U.S. forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island, a separate location, according to a U.S. official cited by Axios.

Traders predict a 66% chance Trump will be impeached before his term ends.

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08/31/2026

Gen Z is turning to AI for nearly every part of daily life, from dating advice and relationship questions to budgeting, investing and career decisions.

As AI tools become more capable, younger users are increasingly treating them as personal assistants for choices once handled by friends, experts or traditional apps.

Traders predict an 11% chance the U.S. will enact an AI safety bill before 2027.

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08/31/2026

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is seeking to spend up to $2 million on Boston Dynamics’ SPOT robot dogs to support border security, infrastructure protection and other law-enforcement operations.

The remotely operated robots are equipped with 360-degree cameras and extendable arms that can open doors and inspect potentially dangerous areas for threats such as weapons or explosives.

Similar robots are already used by the Secret Service and police departments across the U.S., including for surveillance and hazardous-scene assessments.

ICE says the technology would allow officers to inspect high-risk environments while reducing danger to personnel.

Traders predict a 13% chance Trump will rename ICE to NICE before 2027.

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08/31/2026

Lionel Messi has announced his retirement from international football, bringing an end to a record-breaking Argentina career that began in 2005.

The eight-time Ballon d’Or winner scored 125 goals in 207 appearances, won the 2022 World Cup and two Copa América titles, and leaves as Argentina’s all-time leading scorer and most-capped player.

The 39-year-old will continue playing at club level for Inter Miami, where he is under contract through 2028.

Traders predict only a 7% chance Messi will retire from soccer entirely this year.

08/31/2026

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez says Russia and Israel spread and amplified disinformation during last month’s Ceuta migrant crisis, citing research by the EU’s foreign policy service.

Sánchez said networks linked to both countries used the unrest to attack Spain and Europe, arguing the campaign was tied to Madrid’s positions on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

There is only a 1% chance Spain will accuse Morocco of facilitating the Ceuta Migrant wave today.