Big Data Federation

Big Data Federation Big Data Federation tackles some of the world’s complex financial and economic challenges. Official Big Data Federation, Inc. Account.

We apply machine-learning technologies to our mass data to generate predictions and signals for our asset management subsidiary. Follow us for leading AI and data-driven company, industry, and economic predictions.

In November, U.S. total rail volume decreased -4% MoM/-4.5% YoY and remained lower than pre-pandemic levels (-1.5% YoY2)...
12/17/2021

In November, U.S. total rail volume decreased -4% MoM/-4.5% YoY and remained lower than pre-pandemic levels (-1.5% YoY2). Intermodal rail traffic, which requires two or more different modes of transportation, declined -4.6% MoM/-9.6% YoY as port congestion endured. Additionally, labor shortages within rail transportation persisted, with employment one-fifth below average. Looking ahead, the Omicron variant and global supply chain challenges will impact industry results.

As of December 16, 2021, Railroads stocks outperform the S&P500 (Railroads stocks +26.1% vs SP500 +24.3% YTD price performance).

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YoY2 = comparison with pre-pandemic 2019

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In October, the Delta variant drove demand for COVID-19 tests, benefitting the life science tools and services industry....
12/15/2021

In October, the Delta variant drove demand for COVID-19 tests, benefitting the life science tools and services industry. New orders and inventories for electromedical and analytical instruments overtook pre-pandemic levels, increasing +6.2% YoY2 (+3.1% YoY) and +6.9% YoY2 (+8.7% YoY), respectively. Moving forward, the Omicron variant, the flu season, and Americans traveling for the holidays will continue to strengthen COVID-19 testing demand, boosting industry growth.

As of December 14, 2021, the Life Sciences Tools & Services industry outperformed the S&P500 (Life Sciences Tools & Services +30.4% vs SP500 +23.4% YTD price performance).
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*YoY2 = comparison with pre-pandemic 2019

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In November, refineries expanded production by +11% YoY, nearing pre-pandemic levels (-1.3% YoY2*). Gasoline prices (+61...
12/09/2021

In November, refineries expanded production by +11% YoY, nearing pre-pandemic levels (-1.3% YoY2*). Gasoline prices (+61.1% YoY / +30.7% YoY2) remained high as consumption grew +10.6% YoY and inched closer towards the pre-pandemic era (-0.3% YoY2).

Closing the crude oil supply-demand mismatch, where demand returned faster than supply, is necessary to ease upward pricing pressures for petroleum products, including gasoline. Currently, crude oil inventories are at 433.1 million barrels, 6% below the previous five-year average.

As of December 8, 2021, the energy industry outperformed the S&P500 (Energy industry +42.4% vs SP500 +27.1% YTD price performance).
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*YoY2 = comparison with pre-pandemic 2019

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In October, national spending on medical equipment rose +11% higher than pre-pandemic levels (+7.6% YoY). Demand increas...
12/08/2021

In October, national spending on medical equipment rose +11% higher than pre-pandemic levels (+7.6% YoY). Demand increased due to a rebound in elective orthopedic surgeries, such as knee and hip replacements, each climbing by at least one-fifth. Consequently, new orders for medical equipment grew +8.7% YoY (+6.9% YoY2*) while manufacturing gained +8.8% YoY (+5.2% YoY2). Performance in the following months will depend on developments with the chip shortage (inputs for medical equipment) and the Omicron variant.

As of December 7, 2021, the Medical Equipment industry underperformed the S&P500 (Health Care Equipment +15.9% vs SP500 +24.8% YTD price performance).

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*YoY2 = comparison with pre-pandemic 2019

U.S revenue from traditional casino games, sports betting, and iGaming shattered records at nearly $14 B in 3Q21 (+53.8%...
12/02/2021

U.S revenue from traditional casino games, sports betting, and iGaming shattered records at nearly $14 B in 3Q21 (+53.8% YoY/+24.7%YoY2*). Higher vaccination rates and the elimination of operating restrictions facilitated increased spending at brick-and-mortar casinos. Gaming revenue per admission outgrew pre-pandemic levels by at least one-fifth across destination markets.

Performance in the upcoming quarters will depend significantly on how the Omicron situation unfolds.

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*YoY2 = comparison with pre-pandemic 2019

Despite contending with the Delta variant in the late summer of 3Q21, the hotel industry reported revenues of $45B (+25....
11/24/2021

Despite contending with the Delta variant in the late summer of 3Q21, the hotel industry reported revenues of $45B (+25.8% QoQ/+98% YoY), only slightly below pre-pandemic levels (-3.1% YoY2*).

In October, hotel revenue rose +8% MoM (+91.6% YoY), with upticks in business travel leading the recovery path. Furthermore, U.S. hotel occupancy improved roughly two percentage points compared to the previous month, reaching approximately two-thirds. At this rate, it’ll surpass pre-pandemic levels early next year.

In the upcoming quarters, drivers will be leisure travel as the holiday season begins and international visitors arrive. Momentum for business travel will continue as workers return to the office. Hotels will need additional staff to accommodate increased demand, as employment remains 11% under the historic normal.

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*YoY2 = comparison with pre-pandemic 2019

Americans spending on health care exceeded pre-pandemic levels by +4% in September (+0.8% MoM/+7.2% YoY), as the Delta s...
11/19/2021

Americans spending on health care exceeded pre-pandemic levels by +4% in September (+0.8% MoM/+7.2% YoY), as the Delta surge slowed down. Patients were more comfortable returning to regular check-ups and elective care. Over two-thirds of health care spending was concentrated on hospitals (~37%), physicians' services (~18%), and prescription drugs (~15%).

In 4Q21, demand for medical care will increase as a result of the growth in health insurance coverage, facilitated by the special enrollment period. In October, enrollment in Medicare Advantage plans outgrew pre-pandemic levels at 6.7% YoY2* (+0.2% MoM/+3% YoY). However, health care employment remained lower than the pre-COVID era at -2.2% YoY2 (+0.4% MoM/+0.7% YoY). Consequently, labor shortages caused an increase in labor expenses with payrolls spiking +1.9% MoM (+7.9% YoY / +8.1% YoY2).

As of November 18, 2021, the Health Care industry underperformed the S&P500 (Health Care +17.6% vs SP500 +25.2% YTD price performance).
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*YoY2 = comparison with pre-pandemic 2019

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Major U.S. airlines reported 3Q21 revenues +27% above the previous quarter, but still are lagging below pre-pandemic 3Q1...
11/05/2021

Major U.S. airlines reported 3Q21 revenues +27% above the previous quarter, but still are lagging below pre-pandemic 3Q19 level by -25.8%. Overall the airlines industry’s outlook is optimistic, but recovery was affected by continued COVID-19 restrictions on international travel during 3Q21.

During September 2021, the total number of tickets sold in the U.S. showed signs of steady improvement with +11.3% MoM growth, representing 70% of pre-pandemic level of tickets sold (compared to 63% of pre-pandemic level in August). During the same month, number of business trips sold went up +7.1% MoM, making up 41% of YoY2* level of trips sold (raising from 38.9% in August), with airlines stating that improvement continued in October. Moreover, TSA checkpoint travel numbers went up +11.8% MoM during October 2021, but still -20.7% below the pre-pandemic level (an improvement from -23.2% YoY2 in September).

Beginning with 4Q21, airlines expect to see continued growth in corporate travel, including long-haul business travel, as workers return to the office. Demand for international flights, particularly trans-Atlantic ones, is expected to grow as international travel restrictions are lifted for vaccinated tourists in the U.S. and Europe.

As of November 4, 2021, the Airlines industry underperformed the overall market (Airlines +8.6% vs SP500 +24.6% YTD price performance).

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*YoY2 = comparison with pre-pandemic 2019

Heat waves stoked air conditioning across U.S. from late June through mid-July, fueling higher than normal consumption o...
10/15/2021

Heat waves stoked air conditioning across U.S. from late June through mid-July, fueling higher than normal consumption of natural gas for power generation. Consequently, in September U.S. natural gas storage levels were substantially below historic norms (-16.8% YoY and -7.4% below 5-year average). Overall, as of October 8, 2021, the average rate of injection into gas storage facilities is 8% lower than the five-year average during this key refill season (April through October).

Low gas storage levels have raised concerns that supplies might not be sufficient in the face of an expected colder than usual winter.

Lower storage levels impacted natural gas prices. In September, the Henry Hub natural gas spot price was up +26.3% MoM/+167.7% YoY/+101.6% YoY2.

As of October 12, 2021, Utilities stocks underperformed the S&P500 (Utilities stocks +2.45% vs SP500 +15.83% YTD price performance).

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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil futures price (the most actively traded crude oil futures contract) continued to soar ...
10/15/2021

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil futures price (the most actively traded crude oil futures contract) continued to soar in September (+5.4% MoM/+80.1% YoY) after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers' (OPEC+) decision to maintain only a gradual supply hike, despite faster than expected global economic recovery. It also aims to try to keep oil prices at $70 per barrel in 1Q22.

While some countries might be holding back on releasing oil reserves in order to benefit from high oil prices and so make up for lost revenue especially in 2020, output constraints are also a result of years of under investment due to low commodity prices. This is true not only of smaller oil producers, but also of the largest – the U.S. And this trend is continuing despite high oil prices. As of June 30, capital spending by major U.S. oil producers was down -20.52% YoY2 (+1.8% YoY). An already tight oil supply was further disrupted by Hurricane Ida in the U.S. Gulf Coast in August and September. This is expected to impact U.S. oil output and oil prices for the rest of the year. In total, U.S. crude oil production (11.1M barrels/day) at end of September was down -10.5% YoY2 (-3.5% MoM; +3.7% YoY).

Should sanctions on Iran be lifted, Iran claims it could rapidly increase crude oil production which could go some way to easing oil supply issues.

As of October 4, 2021, Energy stocks outperformed the S&P500 (Energy stocks +47% vs SP500 +16% YTD price performance).

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In 3Q21, demand for medical care continued to drive patient flow in health care settings. In August Americans' spending ...
10/15/2021

In 3Q21, demand for medical care continued to drive patient flow in health care settings. In August Americans' spending on health care grew +8.3% YoY (+3.8% above pre-pandemic levels), most of which goes on hospital care (~47%) and physicians services (~23%).

Health care establishments have struggled to keep up with servicing the rise in demand. What was already a shortage in qualified health care professionals has been exacerbated by the pandemic. Health care employment remained -2.3% below pre-pandemic levels (+0.9% YoY) in September. Labor shortages in nursing homes and residential care settings remain a particularly pressing problem, with employment down (-12.6% YoY2 / -5.9% YoY) mainly due to low wages and lack of qualified candidates. Vaccine mandates are further exacerbating the Health Care sector’s labor shortages in 4Q21, with some workers refusing to be jabbed.

As of October 14, 2021, the Health Care industry underperformed the S&P500 (Health Care +12.1% vs SP500 +18.2% YTD price performance).

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In 3Q21 container imports by volume landing at U.S. maritime ports were higher than pre-pandemic levels (10% higher in A...
10/07/2021

In 3Q21 container imports by volume landing at U.S. maritime ports were higher than pre-pandemic levels (10% higher in August) mainly driven by 10-year inventory-to-sales ratio near lows (-12.6% below the pre-pandemic level in July).

Trucking (representing ~40% of the freight industry) was a clear beneficiary of this import movement. Financial data released by several trucking companies showed revenues and shipment volumes registered significant YoY increases in the first two months of 3Q21. Yellow Corp (YELL) reported +18.5% YoY growth in revenues per shipment and +5.2% YoY in daily shipments QTD (1 July- 10 September). In August Old Dominion Freight Line’s (ODFL) daily revenues rose 29.1% YoY due to a 10.9% YoY increase in daily shipment tonnage, and Saia Inc. (SAIA) had a +9.9% YoY growth in daily shipment tonnage.

As of October 4, 2021, the Trucking industry is outperforming the overall stock market (+45% 1-year return vs +32.4% return of total market).

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