Horse Sense Pedigree Analytics

Horse Sense Pedigree Analytics Horse Sense combines industry expertise with AI-driven pedigree analytics to give buyers strategic, data-backed insight into a horse’s value.

We balance the science of forecasting with the art of conformation to reduce bias and guide smarter decisions.

Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Horseman | Part 2 of 13I don't think artificial intelligence should make horse de...
09/01/2026

Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Horseman | Part 2 of 13

I don't think artificial intelligence should make horse decisions for us. Good horsemen already rely on other people when making difficult decisions. A breeder talks to a bloodstock agent, a trainer talks to a veterinarian, and an owner may ask several people for their opinion before making a major investment.

Those people provide information, experience, and another perspective, but the person responsible for the horse still makes the decision. I think AI should work the same way.

It can organize information, compare alternatives, challenge assumptions, and bring another perspective into the discussion. What it should not do is replace experience, observation, intuition, or responsibility.

That is why I think of AI as a thinking partner, not the horseman.

Part 2: AI Isn't the Horseman. It's the Thinking Partner.
https://www.pedigreeanalytics.com/AIAndBloodstock

What Is the Model Projecting for the 2026 Keeneland September Sale?I put the full session-by-session comparison into the...
08/29/2026

What Is the Model Projecting for the 2026 Keeneland September Sale?

I put the full session-by-session comparison into the graphic below because it is the easiest way to see the overall shape of the 2026 forecast against the 2025 sale.

The main takeaway is that the model is not projecting a broad surge across the sale, and it is not projecting a meaningful correction either. Most sessions are staying relatively close to the pricing levels established in 2025, with a few selective moves higher and a few slight pullbacks.

The most meaningful movement is in the stronger-value sessions, where the dollar change matters more than the percentage alone. Session 2 is projected above last year, while Sessions 3 and 4 also show modest projected gains. Session 5 is slightly lower, and much of the rest of the sale remains fairly close to 2025.

What I take from this is that the 2026 market currently looks more like a continuation of the 2025 pricing environment than the start of a new cycle. The model is not asking for every part of the sale to move up. It is showing a market that may be able to hold most of the strength established last year, while still producing selective gains in certain sessions.

The real question, of course, is whether the live market will confirm it once the horses are on the grounds. Catalog value sets the expectation. Physicals, vetting, and buyer competition will decide whether individual horses land above or below it.

Graphic: 2025 Actual vs. 2026 Projected Average by Session

Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Horseman | Part 1 of 13There is going to be a lot more artificial intelligence in...
08/25/2026

Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Horseman | Part 1 of 13

There is going to be a lot more artificial intelligence in the horse business over the next few years. Most of the attention right now is on what AI can automate, but I don't think saving a few minutes on payroll, bookkeeping, or office work is where its biggest impact will be.

The horse business is built on much bigger decisions. Which stallion do we breed to? Is this yearling worth another bid? What does a physical weakness really mean? When should we sell? Those are the decisions that create or destroy value.

Horse racing already has enormous amounts of information. The problem is that much of it is scattered across pedigrees, race records, sales results, production records, veterinary information, market data, and individual experience. I think AI becomes interesting when it helps horsemen bring more of that information together before making a decision.

This is the first article in my 13-part series, Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Horseman.

AI Is Coming to Horse Racing. Most Horsemen Are Looking in the Wrong Place.

https://www.pedigreeanalytics.com/AIAndBloodstock/AIIsComingToHorseRacing

Why the Mare Should Always Come FirstOne of the first questions breeders ask each breeding season is, "Which stallion sh...
08/19/2026

Why the Mare Should Always Come First

One of the first questions breeders ask each breeding season is, "Which stallion should I breed my mare to?"

It is an understandable question. Stallion advertisements fill the magazines, stud farms promote their newest recruits, and sales companies publish pages of statistics highlighting the latest commercial success. Before long, breeders are comparing stud fees, sales averages, nick ratings, and first-year demand.

The problem is that this question starts the process in the wrong place.

Before we can decide which stallion is right, we first have to understand the mare.

The mare is not simply half of the pedigree. She is the foundation of every mating decision. She is the horse standing in front of us. We know her physical makeup, her race record, her temperament, her family, and often her produce record. She is the only part of the equation we can evaluate with certainty before a mating ever takes place.

The stallion is selected because of the mare, not the other way around.

That may seem obvious, but many breeding decisions begin with the stallion and work backward. A breeder falls in love with a fashionable freshman sire, an impressive sales average, or an exceptional nick rating. Once that happens, it becomes surprisingly easy to convince ourselves that the stallion is the perfect choice. Instead of objectively evaluating the mare's needs, we begin searching for reasons to justify a decision that has already been made.

The better approach is much simpler.

Ask a different question.

**What does this mare need?**

Everything else follows from that answer.

The first step is evaluating the mare as an individual, not simply as a pedigree. Two mares with nearly identical bloodlines can require completely different stallions because they are physically different horses. One may be substantial and powerful, while the other is refined and lighter made. One may mature early, while the other takes time to develop. One may consistently produce athletic, correct foals, while another passes along the same structural weakness generation after generation.

None of those differences can be found by looking at a five-generation pedigree alone.

This is why physical evaluation comes first. Understanding the mare's balance, structure, movement, athletic traits, and overall conformation establishes what should be maintained and where improvement may be possible. The goal is not to create a list of faults that need fixing. Every mare has strengths that deserve to be protected.

That distinction is important.

Too often breeders approach mating decisions as though every breeding is an exercise in correcting flaws. While it is certainly desirable to improve weaknesses where possible, it is equally important to identify the qualities that make the mare valuable in the first place. If she has exceptional balance, scope, toughness, or athleticism, those characteristics should not be sacrificed simply because another stallion offers a more fashionable pedigree or a stronger statistical nick.

A successful mating preserves the mare's best qualities while complementing the areas where improvement is possible.

The female family adds another layer of understanding.

When evaluating a mare's pedigree, the first and second dams deserve the greatest attention. These are the generations most likely to reveal what the family consistently produces. Does the family repeatedly produce sound horses? Do they mature early? Are they successful over classic distances or do they show speed? Have they produced runners, producers, or both?

Patterns matter.

Recognizable names buried four or five generations back may be interesting, but they rarely carry the same practical value as understanding what the immediate female family has accomplished. The question is not how many famous ancestors appear on the page. The question is whether this female family has demonstrated a consistent ability to produce quality racehorses.

As mares age, another source of information becomes available.

Their foals begin telling the story.

Some mares consistently throw size regardless of the stallion. Others stamp every foal with the same head, shoulder, or hind leg. Some produce exceptional athletes but lack commercial appeal. Others generate attractive yearlings that struggle once they reach the racetrack.

These patterns are invaluable because they represent real evidence instead of educated guesses.

Every foal teaches us something about what the mare contributes genetically. Good breeders pay attention to those lessons and allow the mare's produce record to influence future mating decisions.

Only after the mare has been thoroughly evaluated should the search for a stallion begin.

Notice that we are no longer looking for a particular horse. Instead, we are defining the characteristics the stallion must bring to the mating.

The mare may require a stallion with a stronger topline, more scope, greater athleticism, improved commercial appeal, or additional precocity. She may instead benefit from added refinement without sacrificing substance, an outcross pedigree, or a sire capable of improving durability in a family that has shown brilliance but limited soundness.

Now the stallion search has direction.

Physical compatibility, pedigree construction, racing aptitude, commercial demand, stud fee, sales performance, nicking analysis, and economic projections all become valuable tools because they are answering a specific question rather than driving the decision themselves.

This is where many modern breeding programs lose their way.

Breeders often begin with the latest sales leader or the hottest young stallion and hope the mating makes sense afterward. A strong nick becomes more important than the individual horse. Sales averages overshadow physical compatibility. Fashion replaces strategy.

The result is a mating built around the stallion instead of the mare.

A mare-first approach forces discipline into the process. It requires breeders to understand the problem before searching for the solution.

Artificial intelligence has the potential to make this approach even stronger.

An AI system can organize physical evaluations, female-family performance, produce records, pedigree construction, sales analytics, nicking information, and commercial forecasting in ways that would have required days or weeks of research in the past. It can compare hundreds of variables simultaneously and identify patterns that might otherwise go unnoticed.

However, AI is only as good as the information it receives.

If the mare has not been properly evaluated, the recommendations will be built on an incomplete foundation. The most sophisticated technology in the world cannot compensate for asking the wrong question.

The quality of the analysis begins with the quality of the mare evaluation.

That is why every mating decision should start with the mare.

She defines the objectives of the mating. She tells us what qualities deserve to be preserved, what characteristics should be strengthened, and what genetic opportunities exist within her family. Only after those questions have been answered should we begin evaluating stallions.

The stallion does not define the mating.

The mare does.

new article. wait for formatting

Responding to Brutus Clay's article in the Thoroughbred Daily News:https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/letter-to-the-e...
07/07/2026

Responding to Brutus Clay's article in the Thoroughbred Daily News:
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/letter-to-the-editor-the-key-ingredients-to-our-industry/

Mr. Clay is right to broaden the discussion beyond handle and wagering. The racetrack must become more than a place where people simply bet on horses. It needs to be a place where people want to spend time.

Racing has a perfect product at its center. The horse is powerful, the setting is beautiful, and the pageantry and tradition are real. The problem is that too many racetracks still fail at the basics: a guest experience that is customer-centric and memorable.

That may sound obvious, but much of the racing experience feels like it was designed for a customer who no longer exists.

Ask yourself: what savvy consumer wants to get dressed up and pay premium prices, only to sit in uncomfortable stadium seating or purchase a box with no amenities or privacy? Or tolerate sub-par generic food?

None of this feels premium; it feels out of touch and dated. Consumers may give it a second chance for the big events, but not for the day-to-day racing.

The industry often talks about how to attract younger fans, but the answer cannot simply be "teach them how to handicap." The old-model racetrack customer, the regular older handicapper, is aging out. If racing wants new people, younger people, and more frequent attendance, the sport has to meet them where they are.

Begin with schedule, comfort, food, and atmosphere.

Schedule: stop running so many races when people are at work and then wondering why attendance is low. Comfort: re-think all amenities and seating from a hospitality lens, accounting for current and future trends. Atmosphere: make the racetrack a social destination. Improve the indoor spaces. Create areas where people want to gather, take photos, bring friends, celebrate, and return.

This does not mean abandoning customers still engaged primarily in betting. It means recognizing that those populations alone cannot carry the future of the sport. The modern customer expects more. They compare the racetrack not only to other sporting events, but also to restaurants, concerts, casinos, lounges, festivals, and entertainment venues. Against that competition, too many racetracks are not close to good enough.

Mr. Clay is also right that the horse has to remain at the center. That is racing's advantage. No restaurant, casino, or nightclub can replicate the emotional connection people can have with a Thoroughbred. Case in point: Griffin Johnson and his involvement with the horse Sandman, which helped bring new people and attention to the sport. But the industry has to package that connection inside an experience that feels current, comfortable, and worth the price.

Important to note: we are also witnessing casinos increasingly wanting to separate themselves from the track rather than serve as a solution to its challenges (i.e. the ongoing separation of casino and racing operations at tracks like Gulfstream Park and Penn National).

The solution is not complicated. Racing needs to stop relying on other venues to solve its problems. Hospitality is neither cosmetic nor peripheral. It is central to the business.

I offer all these thoughts as someone who has spent time in the hospitality sector and the thoroughbred industry for over two decades. I was responsible for the design of restaurant concepts, menus, branding, cost analysis and leadership development for investors in Scottsdale, Arizona and completed a graduate degree in hospitality and data analytics at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. I have been breeding and racing thoroughbreds for twenty years. The same hospitality principles apply to racing. If the industry wants a new generation of fans, the guest experience has to become just as important as the racing itself.

Brutus Clay offers a closer look at several of the factors that would help the Thoroughbred industry grow in the contemporary era

What does “select” really mean at the Fasig-Tipton July Sale?I just published a new Horse Sense Pedigree Analytics artic...
06/18/2026

What does “select” really mean at the Fasig-Tipton July Sale?

I just published a new Horse Sense Pedigree Analytics article looking at that question through the 2024 and 2025 July Sale samples.

After building the Horse Sense AI Physical Evaluation™ model, I expected the July physical scores to show a deeper group of elite yearlings.

The data showed something different.

July appears to reward horses that are forward, commercially understandable, and well timed around sire demand. In other words, it is not just about finding the best physicals. It is about finding the yearlings where the physical, catalog page, sire market, and sale economics line up early.

The main takeaway:

July does not reward perfection.
July rewards alignment.

Full article here:

Horse Sense Pedigree Analytics reviews the 2024 and 2025 Fasig-Tipton July Sale samples using AI physical evaluation, Black-Type Score, and Sale Return Against Stud Fee.

New article from Horse Sense Pedigree Analytics:**Better-Matched Horses: The Real Answer to Stallion Concentration**This...
06/15/2026

New article from Horse Sense Pedigree Analytics:

**Better-Matched Horses: The Real Answer to Stallion Concentration**

This article was written in response to Dr. Steven A. Roman’s recent Thoroughbred Daily News piece on super-sires, large books, and stallion concentration.

I agree that large books are a real concern. A stallion can cover too many mares, and too much concentration around a narrow group of sires can create long-term problems for the Thoroughbred breed.

But the answer is not simply more horses, more mares, or more stallions.

When the foal crop was larger, there were also many horses the market did not want. The industry does not need to return to random volume. It needs better breeding decisions.

A good nick is not the same thing as a good mating.

The mare still has to be evaluated physically.
The stallion still has to improve what she needs.
Pedigree, conformation, market position, and risk all have to work together.

At Horse Sense, this is where we believe modern data and old-school horsemanship need to meet. Artificial intelligence does not replace horsemanship, but AI-supported analysis can help breeders evaluate conformation, compare mare-and-stallion fit, and make more disciplined breeding decisions.

The future health of the Thoroughbred will not come from simply increasing the number of foals.

It will come from producing better-matched horses — horses worthy of being raced, sold, bred from, and supported by the market.

Read the full article here:

https://www.pedigreeanalytics.com/Insights/BetterMatchedHorses

A Horse Sense response to Dr. Steven A. Roman’s Thoroughbred Daily News article on super-sires, large books, sire concentration, nicking systems, physical evaluation, and better mare-stallion matching.

05/12/2026

Female families matter more than most breeders realize.

This article breaks down how female-line signal can help identify whether a pedigree has real commercial and breeding strength, or whether the page is being carried by surface-level stallion appeal.

At Horse Sense Pedigree Analytics, we look past simple nick ratings and stallion fashion to evaluate the structure behind the mare: first dam production, family depth, repeatable black type, and how that signal translates into market confidence.

Read the full article here:

The Kentucky Derby isn’t random.This video from SportsBall ( https://www.instagram.com/reels/DXwZwXJJEYC/ ) does a great...
05/07/2026

The Kentucky Derby isn’t random.

This video from SportsBall ( https://www.instagram.com/reels/DXwZwXJJEYC/ ) does a great job showing the path tens of thousands of foals born each year, a series of qualifying races, and only 20 horses making the gate.

But the most important part isn’t the number.

It’s this: the field isn’t a random sample.

Yes, the Road to the Derby determines who gets in. Points, prep races, timing all matter.

But that’s not what decides who ever has a chance.

That decision is made much earlier, and much closer together, inside a small radius in Central Kentucky.

The Bluegrass matters.

Not as a slogan, but as a system.

The land itself plays a role. Calcium rich soil contributes to bone development and durability. That’s a foundational advantage, not marketing.

Then comes concentration.

Farms like Lane's End Farm, Coolmore Stud, Spendthrift Farm, Taylor Made Farm, and Three Chimneys Farm aren’t just places, they’re nodes in a network. Stallions, broodmares, and management are concentrated in a way that compounds advantage over time.

And then comes selection.

The best mares go to the best stallions. The best foals go into the best programs. Horses that can’t meet the standard are filtered out long before they ever reach a starting gate.

By the time you see a Derby horse, it has already survived multiple layers of pressure that most of the population never clears.

The raw probability is about 0.1%, roughly 20 out of 17,000+ foals.

But that probability isn’t evenly distributed.

A large portion of it lives inside that Kentucky system. Outside of it, the odds drop off quickly.

When you see multiple horses in the same race tracing back to the same sire lines, that’s not coincidence. It’s concentration of genetics, capital, and opportunity.

Breeding is not about optimism. It’s about probability.

And probability isn’t created on race day. It’s created where the horse is born, and what it’s born into.

If you want to understand why certain horses keep showing up at the top level, start with the female side of the pedigree.

Understanding Female Line Signal in the Modern Sales Market
https://www.pedigreeanalytics.com/Insights/FemaleLineSignal

Why Some Female Families Keep Reappearing
https://www.pedigreeanalytics.com/Insights/FemaleFamiliesReappearing

The chart shows how horses qualify.

The real story is where they come from.

04/26/2026

Where should a horse like White Abarrio start his stud career?

The easy answer is Kentucky. The better answer is more strategic.

White Abarrio is a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. He’s sound, durable, and proven over time. But the market doesn’t reward race record alone—it rewards momentum. And his pedigree (Family 9-e) is solid, but not a commercial driver on its own.

So the real question isn’t “is he good enough?”
It’s: where does he have the best chance to prove it?

We’ve already seen how this works.

Girvin started in Florida, got runners, and earned his move to Kentucky.
Bucchero started in Florida, proved consistent, and moved into New York where the program fits.

Florida has quietly become the proving ground for stallions. Not where they maximize value—where they earn the right to it.

We’ve also seen the other side.

California Chrome went straight to Kentucky with more credentials and support than almost any modern horse. And even then, the results didn’t match expectations.

That’s not a knock—it’s a reminder. Kentucky isn’t where you prove a stallion. It’s where proven stallions go.

If you launch White Abarrio in Kentucky right away, you’re asking him to meet expectations before he’s had the chance to build any momentum. Smaller books, tougher scrutiny, less room for error. If he doesn’t hit fast, the market moves on.

The smarter play is simple. Start where he can build:

Full books. Diverse mares. Early runners. Let performance do the talking.

If he hits, then you move him up. If he’s solid, you place him where the economics work.

White Abarrio doesn’t need hype. He needs the chance to prove he can get runners.

The market doesn’t reward where you start. It rewards what your runners do.

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