My Alts Data

06/03/2026

The gold-rates connection:
As the price of long bonds has declined, and yields risen, gold price has declined.
With tightening expectations high, not a great time to own gold here.

06/03/2026

Our core fundamental indicator, the Chicago Fed financial conditions index, has begun to tighten very slightly. It is worth paying attention to: the last time it tightened was from mid-February to end of March; S&P return (-4.5%) over that time frame.

06/03/2026

Your returns since 2023. Looking at a chart like this doesn't require you to think you have to immediately trim risk, but it does require you to have realistic expectations for the future of returns going forward.

06/03/2026

Emerging markets has morphed from a bet on developing countries growing faster into an extension of the tech trade. When tech cools, EM likely to fade too. It's a strange world.

06/02/2026

We have been patiently watching (not owning!) Chinese tech looking for signs of life. A bit of a stirring over the past two days. The under-performance versus US has been massive.

06/02/2026

Year to date, either ultra-short bond funds or floating rate funds have crushed the bond index. That's the power of a shift in Fed rate expectations. No reason to think that might change soon.

06/01/2026

With a month left in the quarter, estimates for growth during the period are converging towards 2% it seems. There is no reason to expect upside growth surprises from here.

05/31/2026

May Was a Blah Month, With an AI-Bubble Attached.

05/31/2026

May returns ex-technology were barely positive.

05/31/2026

Having objective market indicators is just as important at upward market extremes as it is in falling markets. The alternative is to guess, forecast, or listen to those who get paid to guess or forecast....

Objective Indicators and Investment Discipline FCM’s institutional portfolio process is designed to reduce reliance on emotion, headlines, and short-term market narratives. We believe disciplined p…