03/02/2023
The cap redeveloped across north Texas this afternoon keeping things quiet after our morning rumblers swept the southern portions of the DFW area. But this atmospheric layer of protection is only temporary. It will be completely removed by tomorrow afternoon allowing the atmosphere to overturn resulting in numerous thunderstorms to develop.
All severe weather modes will be observed in north Texas on Thursday - large hail, high winds, and tornadoes. But let's be clear:
Will all storms be severe? No.
Will all storms that have hail contain LARGE and DAMAGING hail? No.
Will all storms have damaging winds? No.
Will all storms produce a tornado? No.
Which cities will get the small hail and which ones get the large hail? Which cities get the modest winds, and which cities get the damaging winds? Which cities will see a tornado?
The answer to all of these questions is: Unknown. This is why everyone simply needs to be weather aware tomorrow and just stay alert and monitor the approach of any storm into their area.
There should be two rounds of storms. The first round - during the mid and late afternoon into early evening - will produce rotating supercell storms just about anywhere in north Texas, each one moving NE. These will need to watched closely for they will have the highest potential for large hail and/or a tornado.
Round #2 will be a solid line of storms that will sweep west to east across the Metroplex during the evening. This second round will obviously be the most widespread since it will be a solid line and will have the best - but not only - chances for high winds along with embedded, but short-lived, tornado spinups.
It is hoped that Round #1 can drain the atmosphere of at least some of its energy so that Round #2 won't be as bad as it could be. But I'm concerned that without a cap and with the strong upper-level support that will be passing overhead tomorrow (see yesterday's post), it is going to be fairly easy for the atmosphere to at least partially recover to support a continuing severe weather threat into the evening hours.