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It allows us to build a system that adapts to markets in real time, providing traders with cutting edge tools

02/10/2026

Colours – 2 October 2026

Good morning,

US equities opened Q4 staring into the abyss of a 24 years high in the UST 10 year yield. S&P lower in early trade before bargain hunters in the bond market turned the tide and equities followed UST off the lows to finish modestly in the green. S&P up 0.2%, Nasdaq and Dow flat. Brent up 4.4% at $102.31 after reports that US is deploying a 3rd aircraft carrier and up to 10k troops to the Middle East.

Iran is preparing a broader and more forceful response if the US resumes large scale strikes. Senior commanders are reviewing plans to expand targets beyond US linked assets to countries supporting US operations and potentially to locations outside the Middle East. Iran remains uncertain whether Di**it Trump will launch another major campaign or use more limited pressure. Di**it Trump said he now has a decision to make and said that Iran will either "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer”.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson suggested the central bank may be patient before hiking again following September's hike. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he expects further increases will be needed to restrain the economy into 2027, though he is unsure whether October is the right moment. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan was hawkish, arguing an additional 50 bps or more hike, noting that inflation may not fall much below 2.5% without further hikes. But, Logan also conceded that higher term premiums can slow the economy and reduce the need for tightening. October hike probability collapsed to 28% from 70% on Monday.

US Treasuries were violent last night and found support off the lows. UST 2 year yield down 10 basis point to 4.79%, UST 10 year yield down 5 basis points to 5.24% and UST 30 year yield down 2 basis points at 5.61%. VIX at 16 handle.

In FX, USD strengthened with DXY up 0.8% despite the lower yields. JPY down 0.5% and EUR down 0.8%. Gold up 0.4% as yields retreated and Silver up 1%. NFP tonight and do not think market will have much moves ahead of that.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1160/1.1200 | 1.1310/1.1370
GBPUSD - 1.3120/1.3170 | 1.3270/1.3320
USDJPY - 156.70/157.20 | 158.40/159.00
XAUUSD - 4081/4127 | 4230/4280
DXY - 101.30/101.60 | 102.40/102.80

Non Farm Payrolls tonight, consensus 98k, unemployment expected at 4.1%. But with a few Fed officials sending dovish signals of late, there is a possibility that October hike is off. But tonight’s payrolls number will decide whether December is live. Else for today, we have European CPI and US Factory Orders. 1 Fed speaker. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

01/10/2026

Colours – 1 October 2026

Good morning,

Wall Street closed Q3 in a sour mood. S&P down 0.3%, Nasdaq up 0.2 and Dow down 0.9%. Both S&P and Nasdaq had been well bid earlier with S&P up as much as 0.7% and the Nasdaq up 1.2% after the softer PCE print. Tech held up as Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia all gained. 9 of 11 sectors red. Brent fell 2.5% at $102.59.

Iran received the US response to its proposal via Qatari mediators. A official briefed on the talks said that the sides "largely agree about the steps that are needed but still disagree about the order in which to take them”. Iran wants the blockade lifted first, then the Hormuz opens. US wants the Hormuz open first then lift the blockade. Classic sequencing impasse. Meanwhile the last US forces left Iraq on Wednesday after 23 years which Iran views it as a victory for the "axis of resistance”. Middle East crude exports hit 16.3m bpd in September, highest since the war began. Shipping through the Hormuz has ticked up with shippers charging premium fees.

PCE price index rose 0.3% MoM against a 0.4% expected and 3.4% YoY vs expectations of 3.7%. Core PCE rose 0.2% MoM vs 0.3% expected and 3% YoY. But this is after methodological revisions that knocked back prior readings. Much of
the downside surprise is therefore statistical, not a real improvement. Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%, with consumption at 3.8% and gross domestic income at 2.6%, while final sales to private domestic purchasers rose to 4.6%. Trade deficit widened 11.5% to $132.6b, above the $115b expected, as imports rose 5.5% to $336.1b on a 16.6% jump in industrial supplies including petroleum and a 4% rise in AI related capital goods. ADP showed private payrolls up 90k vs 70k expected. October hike probability collapsed from 70% on Monday to 37%.

Hawks in the Fed are still in control. Overnight, Fed governor Lisa Cook said inflation has been too high for too long but did not address the PCE data. Neel Kashkari pushed back, saying the inflation data do not change his view that it is still too high and that he expects further hikes depending on the economy. He added that he will not ignore the bond market's signal that policy may need to be tighter, though he will not follow it blindly either.

US Treasuries continue the rout. UST 2 year yield up 1 basis point to 4.89%, UST 10 year yield up 5 basis points to 5.29% while UST 30 year yield up 6 basis points at 5.63%. VIX at 16 handle.

In FX, USD strengthened slight with DXY up 0.1%. JPY down 0.1% and EUR lost 0.2%. Gold down 0.6 on the levelled yields and Silver down 2.2%. FX market is still taking the cue from the bond market.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1260/1.1310 | 1.140/1.1440
GBPUSD - 1.3180/1.3220 | 1.3320/1.3360
USDJPY - 156.20/156.70 | 158.30/159.00
XAUUSD - 4081/4127 | 4230/4280
DXY - 100.60/100.90 | 101.60/101.90

With the PCE giving Warsh some breathing space for the October FOMC, up next will be Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls with 98k increase expected. The number decides whether October stays dead or comes back to life. A strong print and the hawks regroup. For today, we have European and UK Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Jobless Claims. 6 Fed speakers tonight. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

30/09/2026

Colours – 30 September 2026

Good morning,

Wall Street dipped for a second day. S&P down 0.2%, Nasdaq down 0.1% and Dow down 0.3%. 7 of 11 sectors fell. Anthropic filed its IPO prospectus targeting a $2 trillion valuation and this is the clearest picture yet of what market is willing to pay for an AI company that has never made money. Brent settled down 2.6% at $102.59 as Saudi resumed tanker loadings from Yanbu after restarting the East-West pipeline.

The Iran war is now in its 8th month and still has no off ramp. Di**it Trump told reporters he doesn't know whether Iran will "give up yet" but insisted it will, describing Iran as doing "very poorly”. The Qatar shuttle continues. Qatar spokesperson Ansari said "We are exchanging messages between the parties, working towards establishing common ground”. Di**it Trump denied reports he had offered sanctions relief and frozen asset release.

RBA raised rate unanimously to 4.60% as expected. It said inflation remains too high and it is prepared to hike again.

US Consumer confidence fell to its lowest in more than 12 years in September with households expecting business conditions and the job market to weaken over the next 6 months.

New York Fed president Williams said he sees "no urgency" for further action after the September hike and expects only one more increase this year if the economy plays out as expected. However, Fed Governor Barr pushed the other way, renewing his case for further increases. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned that letting inflation run above target for five and a half years is "playing with fire" and that the Fed may need to respond to a supply shock with lasting effects. October hike probability dropped from 70% to 50%.

US Treasuries found some support with short end yield lower but the entire yield curve is now within roughly 10 basis points of trading above 5% across every maturity. UST 2 year yield fell 5 basis points to 4.88%, and UST 10 year yield fell 1 basis point to 5.24% while UST 30 year yield up 2 basis points at 5.57%. VIX at 16 handle.

In FX, USD strengthened with DXY up 0.2%. JPY up 0.1% and EUR down 0.2%. Gold found some support and rebounded 1.5%. Silver up 1.3%. Think that widening rate differentials, with UST yield at these elevated levels, are dominating FX market. Taking the cue from bond markets.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1250/1.1300 | 1.1380/1.1400
GBPUSD - 1.3170/1.3200 | 1.3270/1.3300
USDJPY - 155.30/156.20 | 158.10/158.60
XAUUSD - 4073/4113 | 4193/4230
DXY - 100.80/101.10 | 101.70/102.00

Fed's preferred inflation gauge - PCE Price Index tonight. If core PCE comes in at 0.3% monthly as PPI and CPI components suggest, October hike odds go back above 60% and the Williams reprieve evaporates. If it is 0.2% or below, the doves have am******on and the pause case strengthens. For today, we also have European CPI, ADP Non Farm Employment, US GDP, Goods Trade Balance and Personal Income. 4 Fed speakers tonight. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

29/09/2026

Colours – 29 September 2026

Good morning,

Risk off overnight with bond market setting the agenda. S&P down 0.8%, Nasdaq down 0.9% and Dow down 0.7%. Nvidia rose 1.7% after announcing a record $150b buyback but it was not enough to provide much optimism. Tech sentiment also took a hit from reports that OpenAI has shelved its planned release of GPT 6.1 Astra over safety concerns raised in internal testing, which adds a new source of uncertainty to the AI trade. 8 of 11 S&P sectors are negative. Brent closed the day up 0.9% at $105.28, pulled back from the morning surge during Far East time after Di**it Trump rejected Iran’s truce proposal.

Iran talks resumed through mediators and no direct contact. Araqchi spoke to Qatari intermediaries and US officials did the same. The focus is an amended version of the ‘’peace’’ proposal with Di**it Trump rejected over the weekend. Araqchi said “If the Americans claim they are seeking a peaceful solution, we have presented that solution”.

China and US have agreed on a $60b worth of reciprocal tariff cuts on non sensitive goods. China will reduce duties on US corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy and cosmetics. US will cut on Chinese toys, small appliances, tableware and holiday decorations. But soybeans, the biggest US agricultural export to China, were excluded. China also agreed to import 10m metric tons of US coal annually in 2027 and 2028.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook said AI and higher oil prices will keep pushing inflation up in the coming months while stressing that further hikes depend on the data. She also does not see future AI productivity gains as large enough to offset near term price pressures. Another hawkish statements. Futures market pricing a 71% probability of an October hike.

Treasuries extended the rout. UST 2 and UST 10 year yield up 7 basis points to 4.93% and 5.24% respectively and UST 30 year yield up 6 basis points at 5.55%. VIX at 16 handle.

In FX, a rather lacklustre day. USD strengthened slightly with DXY up 0.1%. JPY and EUR down 0.1%. But Gold collapsed. The yield surge has finally broken the anti debasement trade. Gold fell 3.8% with gold ETFs recorded outflows and Chinese demand has softened ahead of Golden Week. Silver tanked 5.7%. Views unchanged and FX market is taking the cue from the bond market.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1300/1.1350 | 1.1400/1.1430
GBPUSD - 1.3170/1.3210 | 1.3300/1.3330
USDJPY - 156.50/157.20 | 158.30/158.70
XAUUSD - 4011/4083 | 4195/4234
DXY - 100.40/100.70 | 101.30/101.70

Nothing new to add here. Think market will take some bets off the table ahead of PCE Price Index tomorrow. For today, we have RBA rates decision, US Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings. 6 Fed speakers tonight. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

28/09/2026

Colours – 28 September 2026

Good morning,

Markets open the week with a sharp reversal from last week’s peace optimism. Di**it Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz proposal over the weekend and Brent has already up 1.7% and reclaimed $106 in early Far East trade. Di**it Trump said "I reject their proposal. They want to make a deal to open the Hormuz Strait immediately because they're losing so badly”. Iran’s Araqchi responded that mediators had not officially relayed a rejection and that Iran would wait for the definitive US position. "Only a negotiated solution can get them out of this deadlock”. However, Di**it Trump also said that he expects US negotiators to hold more talks this week. So he rejected the plan, then said talks would continue. That is the pattern - reject, threaten annihilation, leave the door open and repeat. But the poison pill remained - Iran will make no nuclear concessions.

Another hawkish remarks, this time from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. She said the jump in bond yields reflects real rates rising more than inflation expectations and that expectations remain reasonably well anchored. She attributed the rise to a solid economic outlook, competition for capital from heavy tech investment and markets adjusting to the policy outlook.

US Treasuries steadied on Friday on a 3% drop in oil but the damage was done as yields still remain elevated. UST 2 year yield down 7 basis points to 4.86%, UST 10 year yield down 4 basis points to 5.17% and UST 30 year yield unchanged at 5.49%. VIX at 14 handle.

In FX, USD strengthen slightly with DXY up 0.1%. JPY gained 1% as specs flipped from deep net short to their largest net long. EUR gained 01.%. Gold up 0.2% and Silver up 0.7%. No strong views at the moment, but feels that USD should be supported on dips with yields at these levels especially with market getting used to yields being at these levels. But will see some USD longs off the table if yields start to come off.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1300/1.1350 | 1.1410/1.1440
GBPUSD - 1.3140/1.3190 | 1.3270/1.3300
USDJPY - 156.50/157.20 | 158.30/158.70
XAUUSD - 4081/4156 | 4307/4341
DXY - 100.30/100.70 | 101.30/101.70

Think the Iran war, oil price and bond yields are the interrelated and key to price actions ahead. Quite data heavy this week and the main events will be Core PCE Price Index on Wednesday and Non Farm Payrolls on Friday. Else we have RBA rates decision, US Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings tomorrow, China Manufacturing and Non Manufacturing PMI, US ADP Non Farm Employment, Final GDP, Goods Trade Balance and Personal Income on Wednesday, European Manufacturing PMI, US Jobless Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, European CPI and US Factory Orders on Friday. WE also have LOADS of Fed speaking engagements this week - a grand total of 21. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

26/09/2026

Colours Weekly – 21 to 25 September 2026

Good morning,

Wall Street rallied overnight as oil fell 3% on Iran deal hopes. S&P and Nasdaq up 0.5% and Dow up 0.9%. UST 10 year hit 5.23% intraday before pulling back to close 5.16% as falling oil gave bonds some relief. Xi-Trump summit ended as expected - full of ceremony but little substance. Trade truce extended to 10 January and 2 more meetings promised - APEC in November and G20 Miami in December. But no breakthroughs on Taiwan, rare earths, AI or Iran. US Ambassador Perdue said Trump warned Xi that support for Iran was "totally unacceptable" and received assurances. But a senior Iranian official said that Chinese officials privately assured Iran they will not limit ties under US pressure. So much for assurances. Iran presented a formal 7 days plan to reopen the Hormuz. But separately, a senior Iranian official said Iran will make no nuclear concessions even if the US accepts. US consumer sentiment slipped to a 4 months low.

FX Weekly
For the week, DXY rallied roughly 1% to the 101 area, entirely yield driven as UST 2 year surged from 4.76% to 4.93% and 10 year from 5.00% to 5.21%. EURUSD fell about 0.9% to 1.1350 as the hawkish Fed repricing overwhelmed ECB tightening signals. GBPUSD dropped to the 1.3200 area. USDJPY continued last week's trend, pushing from 156.89 toward the 158 handle as the JPY carry trade remains the path of least resistance with US rates still rising with USDJPY traded near 159 yesterday. Gold lost roughly 2.3% to around $4,290 as surging yields crushed the bullion bid and the previous week's relief rally fully unwound. The week's story was straightforward - bond yield spiked and 7 consecutive Fed speakers since the hike all saying that rates need to go higher.

Our Returns
Weekly return of +5.5% (annualised rate of +286.0% p.a.). Month-to-date return of +19.8%.

AriaQuantum navigated a volatile week where oil swung $8, UST 10 year moved 21bps and the FX market whipsawed between diplomacy hopes and hawkish repricing. The algorithm's ability to identify and capture directional shifts around concentrated catalysts - bond yield spike, Fed speakers, oil reversals - delivered strong returns despite the challenging choppy market.

Conclusion
Think that 3 forces are converging and the market has not yet priced what happens when they collide.

The first is the bond repricing. UST 10 year at 5.21% is not just a number, it is the discount rate for every asset on the planet. As mentioned before, risk markets look fine until everyone reruns their valuation models with 5% plus to 6% yields. The last 2 times 10 year yields broke 5% and stayed there, the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis followed. Beneath the surface, 8 of 11 S&P sectors are negative for September and the equal weight index is down 4% while the headline indices sit near records - this divergence will not resolve quietly.

The second is the policy trap. 7 Fed speakers since the hike have said that rates need to go higher. But they are tightening into an energy shock that they cannot control. Iran's 7 days plan offers a framework for Hormuz but its simultaneous refusal to make nuclear concessions tells you the gap remains enormous. And China's double game of assuring US it will not support Iran while privately assuring Iran that it will not limit ties means that this diplomatic channel is built on sand. The East-West pipeline is restarting but full capacity is weeks away and the Houthis are still hitting Saudi cities. All you need is for 1 drone strike on the right target and oil is back above $110.

The third is the political clock. Di**it Trump sits at 32% approval, 6 weeks before midterms, with mortgage rates above 7%, record diesel prices and his own Fed hiking against him. The war he started has become the inflation accelerant that is now eroding the economy he claims is booming. The supreme irony is no longer just ironic, it is becoming structurally destabilising. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

25/09/2026

Colours – 25 September 2026

Good morning,

Overnight, UST 30 year hit its highest since 2004 and somehow US equities ended roughly where it started. S&P and Nasdaq both finished flat after rallying late while Dow lost 0.3%. 7 of the 11 S&P sectors fell. Oil bounced 3% on Houthi attacks on Taif and Yanbu before pulling back on Iran deal headlines. Brent settled at $106.60.

The Iran deal framework is taking shape. US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path - Iran reopens the Hormuz, US lifts the blockade, frozen assets are released in stages. Iran is willing to shelve the transit fee demand into a side agreement and prioritise ending the blockade.

President Xi’s state visit was full of ceremony but little substance. Bessent confirmed the trade truce is extended to 10 January, and the two sides agreed to further talks on AI. President Xi urged US to oppose Taiwan independence and the $14b arms deal for Taiwan remains on hold. President Xi also said both countries must keep AI under human control, while Di**it Trump said he wants to leave "super intelligence" regulation where it is. No breakthroughs on AI, rare earths or Iran.

3 more Fed officials piled on. Philly's Paulson said "some modest further tightening may be warranted”. New York's Williams said “another rate hike may be appropriate by the end of the year’’. Cleveland's Hammack said “inflation outlook continues to be highly uncertain, with risks tilted to the upside”.

US Treasuries continue falling with yields hitting levels not seen since the 2000s. UST 2 year yield up 3 basis points to 4.93%, UST 10 year yield rocketed 10 basis points to 5.21%, highest since 2007 and UST 30 year yield surged 9 basis points 5.49%, highest since 2004. VIX still at 15 handle.

In FX, USD strengthened on the back of the surging yields. DXY up 0.1%. JPY lost 0.4% and EUR closed flat. Gold down 0.5% and Silver lost 0.9%. With Treasuries yields seem quite bid now, it is hard to fight the trend, but will see some USD longs off the table if yields start to come off.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1300/1.1350 | 1.1410/1.1440
GBPUSD - 1.3140/1.3190 | 1.3270/1.3300
USDJPY - 157.60/158.00 | 159.00/159.80
XAUUSD - 4188/4234 | 4319/4343
DXY - 100.60/100.90 | 101.40/101.80

Will see if bonds can find some footing today. With USD 10 year at 5.20%, institutions are talking about 6% being the pain threshold for equities. It is now 7 consecutive Fed speakers since the hike saying the same thing - high rates needed to fight inflation. The labour market is giving Fed no cover to pause with last night’s US Jobless Claims falling to 197k, near 57 years lows and New Home Sales jumped 6.4% as builders cut prices. The economy is running hot enough to justify more tightening and the Fed knows it. Over the weekend, the main risks are Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure, any Iranian response against Gulf airports and news from the New York Iran talks. For today, we have US Durable Goods Orders and Uni of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations. 3 Fed speakers tonight. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

24/09/2026

Colours – 24 September 2026

Good morning,

Wall Street reversed hard from Tuesday's Nasdaq record as UST yields rocketed. S&P down 0.8%, Nasdaq down 1.1% and Dow down 0.7%. The damage was broad based with every S&P sectors lower except energy. Rate sensitive consumer names took the heaviest punishment. Well, I would say that equity market looks fine until everyone re run their valuation models with 5% plus yields. Brent up 4.3% to $103.50 as the Iran deal hopes faded as quickly as they appeared.

President Xi landed at Andrews. 100 feet red carpet, military band, cannon fire, B-1 bomber flyover and Desperado Trump broke protocol to meet President Xi on the tarmac. Bessent said that he and He Lifeng agreed to extend the trade truce by 2 months through 10 January. Expectations for today’s summit are low - Taiwan, rare earths, Iran and AI export controls all on the table but no breakthrough expected. President Xi arrives in a stronger position with China's trade engine is roaring while Trump's approval sits at 32% and his party faces losing Congress in 6 weeks.

Meanwhile, Iranian President Pezeshkian at an UN address said that Iran "will not bow to pressure" and reiterated demands for control over the Hormuz and transit fees. He also condemned Di**it Trump’s threat to "annihilate" Iran as a bullying mentality. A senior Iranian official said that negotiations between the two sides "remain far apart”. US has said it will impose secondary sanctions on any country that allows Iranian flights from Wednesday onward and Iran's Supreme National Security Council responded by threatening to make neighbouring countries' airports unable to function if they comply.

Flash US Composite PMI surged to 58.4, highest since July 2021, consistent with 5% annualised GDP growth. New orders at their highest since March 2022. Input prices at a 4 years high.

Fed Governor Barr said further adjustments are "likely to be needed" – the clearest forward guidance from any Fed official since the hike. He said risks to the inflation target have risen while labour market risks have faded, that further policy adjustments are likely needed in his base case. October hike probability jumped to 70% from 53% earlier in the day.

US Treasuries tanked as yields rocketed. UST 2 year yield surged 16 basis points to 4.90%, touching 4.95% intraday - highest since May 2024, UST 10 year yield rocketed 16 basis points to 5.11%, the largest daily move since April 2025 and UST 30 year yield surged 10 basis points 5.40%. Mortgage rates are back above 7%. The affordability squeeze is now hitting from every direction – housing, energy, food transport. VIX at 15 handle.

In FX, USD strengthened on the back of the yield surge. DXY up 0.6%. JPY and EUR down 0.6%. Gold down 1.8% and Silver down 4%. Honestly, no strong views at the moment. Will see some USD longs off the table if yields start to come off.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1300/1.1350 | 1.1430/1.1460
GBPUSD - 1.3140/1.3190 | 1.3300/1.3350
USDJPY - 156.70/157.30 | 158.60/159.00
XAUUSD - 4187/4234 | 4342/4370
DXY - 100.50/100.70 | 101.40/101.80

UST 10 year at 5.11%, highest since 2007 and the conversation has already moved to 6%. The relationship between Treasury yields and stock earnings yields is approaching an inflection point. The last 2 times that the 10 year yield broke 5% and stayed there, world stocks tanked - the dot-com bust and the financial crisis. For now, I would respect the momentum in yields rather than fight it. The 10 year at 5.10 to 5.15% is the level to hold; a close above 5.15% opens a path toward 5.25/5.30%, while a quick drop back below 5% would suggest capitulation has run its course. For today, we have SNB rates decision, US Jobless Claims and Current Account. 2 Fed speakers. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

23/09/2026

Colours – 23 September 2026

Good morning,

The ‘’feel good feelings’’ are back with lower oil prices. Tech ran to fresh records while financials was sold hard. S&P closed flat, tech heavy Nasdaq hit a 2nd consecutive record high, up 0.45% while Dow down 0.4%. Micron and AI stocks led. S&P bank index fell 3%. as the UST 2s10s curve hit its flattest level since March 2025, which threatens bank net interest margins. Oil sold off on that combination of diplomacy and supply. Brent fell 2.03% to $98.30. Oil has fallen roughly $9 from last week's highs.

Araqchi met Witkoff at the UN and formally conveyed Iran's conditions - immediate lifting of the naval blockade, immediate release of frozen assets and end of war across all "resistance" fronts. Di**it Trump said Witkoff and Kushner had a "very productive" meeting with mediators and that there was "a lot of momentum”. But in his UN speech he said” Will a deal be made? Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly?”. Saudi restarted the East-West line at a low pumping rate. The first Yanbu cargo is loading, bound for China. Full restart will take 6 to 8 weeks. Tankers are already positioning at Port Said and Sidi Kerir for ship-to-ship transfers into the Mediterranean.

President Xi arrives in Washington later today for his first visit in over a decade. The summit with Di**it Trump tomorrow will cover the trade truce expiry on 10 November, rare earths, AI guard rails, Boeing orders and potentially, Iran.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said conditions are "if anything, firming" and that inflation risks outweigh employment risks. He was explicit that inflation is no longer just an energy and tariff story as much of the PCE basket is rising at more than a 3% annual rate and so called "passing" shocks are proving persistent. He also pointed to momentum outside data centres, including a hot defence sector, more upbeat manufacturing contacts and healthy bank loan pipelines. He left further hikes open with "we'll see".

US Treasuries slightly higher as yields retreated on lower oil prices. UST 2 year yield down 1 basis point to 4.74%, UST 10 year yield unchanged at 4.95% and UST 30 year yield up 2 basis points 5.30%. VIX still at 14 handle.

In FX, USD strengthened with DXY up 0.1%. JPY closed flat and EUR lost 0.2%. Gold up 0.2% and Silver gained 1.6%. Given that the situation in the Middle East seems to be de escalating, think USD is caught between losing its ‘’war premium’’ and hawkish Fed. Sees range trade ahead.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1350/1.1400 | 1.1480/1.1520
GBPUSD - 1.3250/1.3300 | 1.3390/1.3440
USDJPY - 156.10/156.70 | 158.00/158.70
XAUUSD - 4234/4277 | 4388/4430
DXY - 100.00/100.30 | 101.00/101.40

President Xi arrives today. Xi-Trump summit tomorrow. The Hormuz proposal is on the table. The pipeline is restarting and oil is below $100. But Iran's formal conditions include ending the war across every front and the pipeline will take weeks to reach full capacity. If Brent breaks decisively below $95 and stays there, hike expectations will need to come down across the G10 and that would change the setup for everything else. Feels that the market is trading on diplomacy hope and oil relief. For today, we have European, UK and US Manufacturing and Service PMI. 1 Fed speaker tonight. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

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