27/11/2025
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Recent memory and nand flash shortage are structurally driven by ai, unlike past short cycles. memory has become a strategic resource globally.
A.DRAM:
1.shortages are severe, expecting until mid-2026. ddr5 and ddr4 both remain tight, with ddr5 prices rising faster starting q4 2025. some vendors are shifting nand capacity to dram due to higher margins, further tightening supply. most customers receive far below requested volumes.
2.although ddr4 prices have already surged, they are expected to enter a plateau phase and stay elevated rather than drop.
3.the core issue is no longer price but allocation, demand is multiple times supply, and customers focus solely on securing shipments to avoid production stoppages
B.SSD: nand supply continues tightening as capacity shifts to dram and hdd shortfalls accelerate ssd adoption. flash prices are rising from q4, like earlier dram patterns. shortages are worse than previously estimated, with 2026 likely to see simultaneous dram and nand deficits.
3. MARKET: demand far exceeds supply, with major oems and csps sending top executives to secure limited allocations. traditional pc and mobile brands face reduced priority and potential product delays. memory has become strategic for ai infrastructure, and the tight market is expected to persist for the next year or longer.
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