Pa3kj - Radio Engineering / Ham Radio / Software Defined Radio

Pa3kj - Radio Engineering / Ham Radio / Software Defined Radio Radio engineering, Antennas, Propagation, Matlab and related topics Owned by PA3KJ a.k.a. PE1LDW/PD0NYQ

04/04/2020

Number of new cases : +904 (total 16.627)
Number of hospitalized : +336 (total 6.622)
new deaths reported today : +164 (total 1.651)
Graph1 Netherlands
Graph2 Italy
Graph3 USA
Graph4 Red Netherlands, Blue Italy
Italy scaled (divide by 5.6)
Netherlands shifted (5d)

03/04/2020

Number of new cases : +1.026 (total 15.723)
Number of hospitalized : +502 (total 6.286)
new deaths reported today : +148 (total 1.487)
Graph1 Netherlands
Graph2 Italy
Graph3 Red Netherlands, Blue Italy
Italy scaled (divide by 5.6)
Netherlands shifted (5d)

In the graph below I shifted the Dutch data (Daily new cases COVID-19) 5 days back and scaled the Italian data by a fact...
01/04/2020

In the graph below I shifted the Dutch data (Daily new cases COVID-19) 5 days back and scaled the Italian data by a factor 5.6. Graphs are quite similar. This raises the question wether we can use the Italian data to make a "trend" forecast for the Netherlands .. (red = Netherlands, blue = Italy)

31/03/2020

Like said before I'm trying to make a model for the spread of the corona virus. Here you can see Matlab trying to estimate the infection, recovery and mortality rate of the corona virus based on the available Dutch data (https://www.rivm.nl/actuele-informatie-over-coronavirus)

First attempt to estimate the parameters of my COVID-19 Matlab model based on the available Dutch data ....
30/03/2020

First attempt to estimate the parameters of my COVID-19 Matlab model based on the available Dutch data ....

Can we predict the future? I'll give it an inaccurate shot. Picture 1 shows the graph of the total number of deaths duri...
30/03/2020

Can we predict the future? I'll give it an inaccurate shot. Picture 1 shows the graph of the total number of deaths during an pandemic as calculated by the Matlab model I created. Second picture is china and the shape of the curve is as predicted by Matlab. Third and fourth graph are Italy and the Netherlands. Looks like Italy is half way so the estimated nr of deaths at the end of the pandamic will be +/- 23.000. It looks like we're at 30%. So the estimated total number of deaths for the Netherlands will be +/- 2500. I fear our "semi lockdown" will last at least another three weeks ....

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