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Fundalyse, Echelon Square, Colombo Financial District, Colombo (2026)

18/08/2020

Ever had a stock market loss? It's worse than heartbreak.⁣
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The stock market can make you a millionaire over time. It can turn you to a beggar overnight. If Rocky Balboa was to describe the market, this is how he would put it. ⁣
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''The market ain’t all sunshine and rainbows. It’s a mean and nasty place…and it will beat to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let the market… it’s about how hard you can get hit, get up, and still keep moving forward.''⁣
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To make sure that you continue to stay in the game and win is all about risk management or we call it - damage control. Investors and traders taking a loss will come in many pains; an ant bite, a wasp sting, a heartbreak, or a venomous snakebite and you don't want to end up with that as it will decimate your portfolio and your spirit.⁣
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Most players in the market enjoy reaping profits during a bull run with heavy equity exposures, but when a major correction takes place or volatility takes place, the amateurs are left nowhere to run but burn to the ground and never return. It's because they are not trained to face the situation and become disciplined.⁣
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Successful players are trained and gain XP with time. They must learn how to cut their losses short. This means selling a stock when it's down from your purchase price. The fact is, no one likes to sell for anything for a loss. It's an admission that you made a mistake and a slap on your ego. But if you can set your ego aside and the emotions, you can take a small loss and still be fit enough, both financially and mentally, to invest the next day. ⁣
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When you look at the returns a stock requires to breakeven after a dip, the percentages highlight the damage a loss can do to your portfolio. The returns needed to recover from a loss becomes exponential and gets more disheartening with the fact that the market tends to drop faster and move up slowly. Therefore cutting losses ASAP prevents you from suffering a devastating blow that you may not recover from. ⁣
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Share this among your friends so they will learn to manage their losses effectively. ⁣
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@ Colombo, Sri Lanka

20/07/2020

When the warlord in Casino Royale asked Le Chiffre whether he believed in God, Le Chiffre replied, '' No, I believe in a reasonable rate of return'' ⁣
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We believe in that too!⁣
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Just only two weeks only before the big day for this quarter, this election has been quite a different one than the any which the market has witnessed before. COVID19 still lurks around and a rise in the number of cases especially in Colombo affects the market drastically by performing negatively. ⁣
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However, just as we mentioned in our earlier election post, the market went through correction by taking a 5.5% dip before rebounding back to the 5000 levels. You could blame it on the COVID or you could blame it on brokers or whoever, but as Thanos said, it was inevitable. ⁣
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The market will be positive during the next 14 days by contributing gains to the ASI. Fundalyse Intelligence research and data show the most active and heavily contributing sectors to the ASI will be the BNK, INS, MAT & CG sectors. Large positive gains will be seen especially in the MAT and CG sectors. So just like you hoarded on groceries and canned mackerel tins before the lockdown, now and the next few days will be ideal to hoard on the stocks which will give your exponential gains close to the election. If the market believes President G's administration which is favored by the market currently can secure the majority, we would be able to see extra abnormal returns close to the main day and after the election day. Once election day is over, if you wish to get out of the market after the election, the ideal days will be within +1 to +7 days as the market shows a U-turn by day +8.⁣
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The above stock is what Fundalyse believes would be the top contending stocks during the next two weeks. To get the unblurred insights, all you to do is be a follower of Fundalyse, share this story on your feed and tag two close people who you think will find Fundalyse useful and exciting in the comments section and we will drop you the insights to your inbox.⁣⁣⁣⁣⁣
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@ Colombo, Sri Lanka

29/05/2020

Everyone has bad days and you need to remind yourself that investing in the market is not for the faint-hearted. If seasoned billionaires can lose money, are you able to swallow your pride, take the loss on your portfolio, and move on? ⁣
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84-year-old billionaire tycoon Carl is not just a legendary investor, he is a market mover and a Fundalyse favorite. The corporate raider turned shareholder activist jumped out from Hertz Global Holdings, a 102-year car rental company, like a driver jumping out of a fast-moving car without breaks. He managed to stay alive but suffering from injuries and bruises. ⁣
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Absorbing a loss of more than $1.8 billion and dumped all his shares when the car rental company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection a few days ago after COVID-19 had severely hit the US and the demand for travel vaporized faster than the hand sanitizer on your hands. These will be days he will contemplate and realize regret is much heavier than a black hole. He was closely attached to Hertz and invested in the span of 6 years since 2014 only to exit with under than $40 million or 97% wipeout of investment. Only just a few months ago, the company was doing well until February this year before the stock came tumbling down, while his younger rival Bill Ackman [another Fundalyse favorite] who Carl had a distaste, made billions in a matter of weeks.⁣
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However, Carl seemed to have a special place in his heart for the car rental company which seems to be one of the reasons why he was not able to exit his positions earlier. On the other hand, Bill Ackman dumped shares of his favorite idol Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway since Berkshire took a $7 billion loss during the last quarter and has been sitting on $137 billion cash. However, Carl believes Hertz can come back after restructuring and become great again just like Donald Trump's vision for America.⁣
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There is a lesson to be learned from this for every investor and trader out there. Even the well-experienced investors can be short-sighted and make mistakes and get attached to companies.⁣
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Attached to specific stocks on the Colombo Stock Exchange? Let us know in the comments!⁣
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@ Colombo, Sri Lanka

28/05/2020

While Sri Lankans from foreign lands are wanting to come back home, Foreigners are desperately wanting to get out!⁣
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Foreign investments in banking stocks are cashing out and taking their money away from our country due to the impending negative performance from the industry in the upcoming quarters due to COVID-19. Local banks have not been performing during the last two years making this year a hat trick. The ban of dividends imposed by the central bank since banks are running out of liquidity and cash flows, the introduction of the debt moratorium on businesses, and the upcoming Rs. 2 trillion debt settlement are the other aggregating reasons. ⁣
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For the first time in corporate history, a company is facing a reversal of its dividend announcement after the top management of a listed real estate company decided that they will vote against the declaring of dividends at its AGM. It is similar to the scene where corporate raider Gordon Gekko in 1983 Wall Street in his iconic moments challenged Teldar Paper’s management decisions off guard. This has further increased skepticism whether banks will also follow the same trend and drop the dividend ban bomb at the bank’s AGMs. Knowing the rupee has been controlled by the Central Bank from further depreciating and stepping on the money printing machine, investors know when the time comes to let go of the currency sterilization they are going to get hit with massive forex losses.⁣
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While Commercial Bank being labeled the strongest bank in the country, it has seen the biggest foreign exit, collected by local investors who are some quite new to the scene. Fitch Ratings last evening released a new report downgrading the sector from B to B- which translates junk and highly speculative, risky and to steer away which was not the case pre-COVID as everyone was optimistic. However, the closure of the stock market on everyone changed their perspective. Fear is among them that if another second wave hits Sri Lanka, the money will be stuck in a dead stock exchange. ⁣
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It’s like Ned Stark from Game of Thrones warning us, ‘Winter is Coming’ to Sri Lanka. But it might not be scary as it is. ⁣
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27/05/2020

Type of markets we had in the past 10 years.⁣
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Did you know we had only 11 strong bull runs during the past 30 years while only experiencing 3 bull runs during the last decade?⁣
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The rest of the years have been in bear territory. The longest bear market we are experiencing has been from 2015 until the present.⁣
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Will the new decade be the start of a new bull market🐃? ⁣
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Let us know your thoughts in the comments!⁣
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27/05/2020

Type of markets we had in the past 10 years.⁣
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Did you know we had only 11 strong bull runs during the past 30 years while only experiencing 3 bull runs during the last decade?⁣
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The rest of the years have been in bear territory. The longest bear market we are experiencing has been from 2015 until the present.⁣
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Will the new decade be the start of a new bull market🐃? ⁣
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Let us know your thoughts in the comments!⁣
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equities

26/05/2020

Angel has fallen and this time there is no Agent Banning to the rescue.⁣
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Famous brand and largest lingerie retailer Victoria’s Secret in the US is on the verge of bankruptcy after the deal with a private equity firm Sycamore Partners collapsed due to breach of agreement during the pandemic. L Brands, the owners of the racy lingerie who defined sexy for decades has now piled up with debt and plans to shut down 300+ US stores due to weaker sales partly due to quality complaints by customers and weaker post-COVID-19 demand since feeling sexy is not a need in the future as more customers have learned to ditch the lingerie to go commando while at home. Customers have realized during the lockdown that VS is no longer needed to seduce their spouses and partners, therefore no more annual runway shows for you to indulge in.⁣
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Brandix owned Teejay Lanka (TJL.N0000) the suppliers to Victoria’s Secrets are to be affected by the outcome of the closure of stores as US market comprises of 48% for TJL’s exports. L Brand in its recent quarterly reports saw a tumbling of sales to 46% and highlights measures to cut down future winter and spring inventory where TJL will see a plummet of orders in the foreseeable future. Such outcome put a risk on TJL’s existing 2600+ workforce as their job security is questionable and future revenues from the lingerie company in the coming quarters. ⁣
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The apparel industry overall has been severely hit by the pandemic and recovery of the industry is expected at least to take 12 to 15 months to reach pre-COVID levels. However, demand has shifted presently from sexy lingerie and clothes manufacturing for Teejay to Personal Protection Equipment PPE manufacturing such as masks as existing customers have been pushing for orders which have been keeping the listed apparel company afloat.⁣
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23/05/2020

Your plus one’s PMS is hard to handle? Wait till she sees you during the blow-off phase!⁣⁣⁣⁣⁣
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The stock market is known to make people rich; it could punish you for being stupid and take you from ordinary joe to homeless joe in 100-0. This is not gambling! It’s ignorance of how the system works. The market works in cycles just like any business or an economic cycle and you are not aware of it. We are here to remind you it exists with a twist using emojis. We use emojis in our texts so it doesn’t look like a straight face response. It avoids misinterpretation of your pun or sarcasm or whatever the message is. Emojis are the final garnish and make it more exciting and interesting; and that’s what we did to the ASPI.⁣⁣⁣⁣⁣
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Apart from the fundamentals determining the true value of a company, the market is driven by Fear and Greed. We took emojis and placed on top of the trend line which is an actual representation.⁣⁣⁣⁣⁣
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𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 is where seasoned investors collect discreetly without triggering prices or volumes. A time-consuming process that requires patience which many lacks. Instead of going for chunks, it’s about bite-size pieces. This is where you become filthy rich if you collected. However, the previous crash has scarred most of you and your gut starts to flip when you think of re-entering.⁣⁣⁣⁣⁣
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𝗔𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 is where the institutions and other players start accumulating after checking up with their guts. Fashionably late to the opening but not have missed anything significant. During this period, no price fluctuations but volumes to tend to increase gradually eventually creating a trend like Tik Tok videos.⁣⁣⁣⁣⁣
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𝗠𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗮 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 is where the party has turned out to be wild like Project X or Wolf of Wall Street where everyone is getting high and greedy filled with lots of attention. Everyone wants the action and willing to pay any price due to FOMO, creating a bubble.⁣⁣⁣⁣⁣
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𝗕𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗣𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 is where the big boys are leaving the party knowing it’s time. They start selling all of their holdings triggering a bear market. The party is over and your depressed, angry and hungover.

20/05/2020

The food in the background is tempting to eat, however, you could be a person who doesn’t eat junk food and avoid them religiously. So this is not a fast-food advertisement. Imagine your doctor or fitness guru advised you that to stay fit that you need to avoid junk. Eat more of this every day and you could risk ending up being junk. in other words, you are what you eat. ⁣
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Sri Lanka is facing a similar fate of being rated to junk status when it comes to paying our debts in a few months. Our country has been sick according to independent rating agencies that the whole world relies on. Earlier this month, one of the top three credit rating agencies downgraded Sri Lanka’s bonds [the type of bonds Arjun Mahendran & Co. loved] to junk status or highly speculative status and today S&P Global Ratings reiterated the same to Sri Lanka by slamming B- staying just above CCC [not Colombo City Center] because we have not been earning the required cash inflows, a partially closed economy and enjoying low taxes in the middle of a pandemic. ⁣
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What does this mean to investors who have invested in our Sri Lankan bonds? It means if you bought these bonds, you have a risk of Sri Lanka not paying you what is owed to you. Why? Because Sri Lanka owes Rs. 2 trillion to the world and these rating agencies and debt holders think that Sri Lanka doesn’t have that kind of money in the treasury to pay by September and October. This is the largest debt repayment in our history and couldn’t have been a worse timing after being attacked by extremists last year followed by a global pandemic. If you were to buy our future bonds to raise money to pay off the upcoming debt, using our food analogy, it better look good and be damn tasty now. ⁣
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What does it mean to us? We could head to a similar fate as the Greeks [Greek Debt Crisis] did which lasted for 10 years; austerity measures, loss of income and increase in poverty and humanitarian crisis, crash in stock market and real estate market, higher taxes and interest rates, hyperinflation leading to adverse social effects. It's like the end of the world. ⁣
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19/05/2020

Yes. If you didn't know, the stock market has its unique animal kingdom represented by humans. It's not the usual animal kingdom that you're familiar with since it involves no lions and no pride rock.⁣
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Using animals to illustrate in the stock market are the emojis of investing. While you use the eggplant, water drops, and heart emojis to represent subtly how you feel and what is require to be done, investors and traders use animals to represent themselves as well and what the current market environment and feelings are. Think of it as a mascot you would wear and cheer and live and die by.⁣
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Follow us to find out what are these animals and what they represent in a world where money doesn't sleep. ⁣
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19/05/2020

The wolves in the stock market are powerful intelligent cunning investors and traders who use unethical, criminal means to make money from the market. There are typically like the wolf you have read in Little Red Riding Hood, waiting to devour innocent and small investors in the market at a given time. Mostly, wolves are politically affiliated in Sri Lanka and involved in behind the scene scams and manipulations that move the stock market. ⁣⁣
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However, wolves are touchable and if they were caught in the act of disrupting the market or making illegal gains such as sensitive insider information, you could end up paying a massive fine and a hefty prison sentence. There is strict law for them in developed countries but so far no one has served time in Sri Lanka because they all know someone. ⁣⁣
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Many wolves in the stock market tend to create a wolf market in the disguise of a bear or bull. They don't want you and anyone talking about it. Wolf market can be created by thing air when a group of big boys and girls get together at their tea parties or Zoom sessions and decide which company they want to drive down and collect or drive up and sell. During the wolf market, traders tend to make a lot of money due to large amounts of volatility, so you either could be the lucky bloke or the victim. ⁣⁣
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Remember The Wolf of Wall Street, don't you? Jordan Belfort was once a ferocious yet charming wolf stockbroker who made illegal gains from penny stock manipulation, pump and dump schemes, and insider trading. The most notable prison sentence imposed on a wolf was a Sri Lankan. That's right! Lankan born hedge fund manager Raj Rajaratnam served 11 years in prison in US prison for being a big bad wolf. He came out recently. The most recent wolf is Lankan born Arjun Mahendran which rigged the Sri Lanka bond market so his in-laws could gain billions of rupees. Now he is Singapore taking occasional walks to the bank and no one is doing anything about it. ⁣⁣
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Do you see where we are going? Lankans and the love of being a wolf? ⁣⁣
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Tag the wolves you know in the comments 😎⁣⁣⁣⁣⁣⁣
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19/05/2020

A bear in the market is a destructive force of nature. It is a necessary evil to punish greedy investors and ignorant ones, which in result allows new entrants into the market since everything every day is on Black Friday Sale.⁣
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Bears are fierce and they can give you nightmares. Pessimistic by nature, these investors or traders are the opposites of a bull. They are convinced that the party is over and everyone needs to be pushed away from the building or cliff. They are certain the market is headed for a fall and swipe their paws left and right driving stock prices down. They decide the speed and pace of the fall and most of the time in this period you will be losing money apart from a dead cat appearing and bouncing off occasionally giving you a chance to make some money in between. [will explain in the next post].⁣
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A bear market appears when the economy is bad and recession is looming. It's subtle like a thief who would come for blood instead of honey and you wouldn't know if they are here for good until you have lost 20% or more of your money without recovering in a short period. Bears tend to stay longer in Sri Lanka unlike in other countries. The best thing to do during this phase of life is to contemplate on the good times you made money or tried to at least and stay on the sidelines until the country and economy shows signs of optimism and growth and start buying again.⁣
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The notable bear market was from 2011-2012 and the longest in Sri Lanka was from 2015-Present.⁣
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Tag your bearish friends in the comments 😎⁣⁣⁣
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Fundalyse

18/08/2020

20/07/2020

29/05/2020

28/05/2020

27/05/2020

27/05/2020

26/05/2020

23/05/2020

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