28/09/2013
PE investment & logistics sector
Analyzing logistics industry from a financial perspective throws out a strategic perspective as to why the industry is not matured enough for hot M&A transactions. One of my research projects “Analyzing private equity investment opportunities in the logistics sector in India” has given some insights into this critical aspect.
s the research involved private equity investment angle, the public companies were not a part of the study. The approach was to divide the logistics sector into specific selected industries and analyzing them on various parameters. Below were the sub-segments that were analyzed.
Surface Transport / Cargo and warehouse providers
As known to everybody, this forms the bigger pie in the entire sector. Typically about 90% of the players in India belong to this family. Selection of healthy companies is a challenging task.
Findings:
This sector is slightly healthy in terms of percentage Net profits Vs Sales (Turn over) compared to the other sectors though there are some exceptions. The net profits average out to about 4%-5%.
The questions that pop up are:
a. Are the margins shrinking due to large number of players in this segment?
b. Lack of innovation such as bundling/consolidation or even fuel efficient trucks etc?
c. Infrastructure and amenities etc
d. Why is this segment not open minded for private equity?
e. How long would banks support this segment if the margins keep on decreasing?
f. Management education to the promoters necessary?
Another challenge in this segment is that the companies which are in RED are not open for private equity due to ownership issues. Most of the companies are not even ready to disclose the fact that they are not doing well and would like to get funded to turn around the business; the reason being they do not like a share holder controlling his business. The unfortunate part is that the transporter doesn’t look from the angle of improving and expanding his business.
From the outside it looks like investments, M&A can be a easy go here, but would be an exigent task because the external factors such as the economies/efficiencies etc play an important role in this rather than the intra company issues.
Couriers and parcel service
A smaller number of companies comprise this segment compared to the cargo transport. However, there are only few well known private limited companies that are either doing too well or the other way round.
Findings:
This sector is a complete monopoly market dominated by few big companies that enjoy major market share. This results in the biggies gaining the economies of scale through achieving the learning curve. Due to this the smaller companies are bleeding and not very healthy in terms of percentage Net profits Vs Sales (Turn over). The net profits considering only the top 4-5 larger companies average out to about 4%-5%. The questions that pop up are similar to that of Transport / cargo segment.
Already being a oligopoly market, investments & M&A activities would be on the slower side in this segment.
Packers and movers –
Personnel baggage
Though packers and movers are typically not considered as a part of logistics fraternity, this was chosen as they make an interesting sub-segment that includes multi modal moves such as road, train and air including special packaging and handling. Again, there are umpteen number of players in this area but completely unorganized and region-wise based. Not many companies have made a name that can be called as a one-stop solution for all personnel moves.
Findings:
This is a highly customized business and hence the profit margins have a huge standard deviation. Most of the companies which work in this space are those that have regional strengths. Further, insurance plays a very important role as this is a huge cost to the packers and movers. In case of damage/theft/pilferage, it is the packer’s insurance premium that is going to burn his pocket.
But the basic question here is: has this segment gained importance in India? Do people understand the value this segment gives? This segment runs mostly on sentimental values. Similar to the Surface transport / cargo business, investments & M&A would be a challenge in this sector as not many companies have tested waters in this area!
Other points:
1. The total sample size considered was about 70 companies that form all the above segments.
2. Database such as Capitaline was used.
3. Financials were analyzed using reports from Crisil, Fitch and Care.
(The author is presently preparing a comprehensive report on investment trends in Indian Logistics Business)