10/05/2016
6.87 Initial Pub Trends
By KawaiiSocks on May 3rd, 2016
Courtesy of Dotabuff.com
Despite the introduction of the new items and tweaks to the core game mechanics, it is possible to consider 6.87 a rather mild patch. There were very few direct changes to the heroes and most of them can be considered minor, especially compared to the 6.86 update. Naturally, the metagame in both pub and professional matches has changed, but these changes weren’t as drastic as expected. In fact, it is possible to argue that for the most part the changes in the pick rate of certain heroes can be largely attributed to the new ranked All Pick system.
That said, there are still big winners and losers in this patch. As predicted in the 6.87 analysis blog post, many of the new meta dominant heroes are tanky Strength cores, while many previously pop**ar Intelligence heroes are among the biggest losers. The latter group has received a substantial buff in the from of scaling spell damage, however it was mostly counterweighted with the direct nerfs.
Biggest Winners (3%+ win rate increase)
Axe
There were just too many things that went right for this hero. Changes to both Blade Mail Blade Mail and Counter Helix Counter Helix secure his late-game damage potential, while his ability to disable through spell immunity is almost unparalleled. Even after a minor nerf in 6.87b, his win rate has stayed relatively high, dropping by less than 1%.
The hero was a relevant pick in the professional scene before. In his current state he is arguably even stronger—there are more late-game options available for the hero and many of the currently pop**ar heroes have some form of summons, which increases the potential for higher value Berserker's Call Berserker's Calls.
Lifestealer
Apart from receiving a substantial Strength growth buff, the hero benefits the most from the tankier meta—his skillset truly shines against heroes with large health pools. Moreover, a return of the playmaker mids has ensured that more often than not there is a suitable ally for infest-bombs, making him a much safer pick in pubs. Finally, the buff to the Armlet of Mordiggian Armlet of Mordiggian has also facilitated the hero's return to the meta, making for a very strong core, who comes online relatively early.
The hero has also seen some professional play already. While it is unlikely that the hero in his current form is a first phase pick material, he remains a great situational hero who fits and excels against many lineups.
Slark
The hero has received no direct changes in 6.87, yet his win rate has increased by almost 5%. The hero has already been situationally good, but the changes to Silver Edge Silver Edge's build-up have made him a much stronger foe in public matchmaking, where invisibility is generally a lot more reliable, compared to the professional scene. It is also worth noting that many of the meta heroes, despite being tanky, lack DPS. This meta trend of lower DPS tankier heroes suits Slark exceptionally well, since he can remain relatively safe from burst damage and has the potential to leach a lot more stats.
The new item Echo Sabre Echo Sabre also suits him a lot and he is by far the hero that builds it the most.
Elder Titan
Comparing meta and trend stats reveal a massive rise in win rate of the hero, especially in the 5k+ bracket, where the win rate differences for last month and last week differ by almost 5%. The hero, once again, excels against tankier lineups, since most of his damage is percentage-based, while his aura strips down most non-bonus armor and magic resistance. In public matchmaking he is currently one of the top offlaners, not too far away from the meta staples such as Faceless Void Faceless Void.
Timbersaw
A massive direct buff to Reactive Armor Reactive Armor and Bloodstone Bloodstone have made the hero a viable option in many scenarios. Once again, the hero is also great at dealing with Strength cores, making him not only independently viable, but also great in most current match-ups. 32 extra armor and health regeneration make for a very tough opponent to deal with, while the damage output on the hero has been slightly increased with the global Intelligence rework. Moreover, being able to stack up the stats loss on the enemy up to three times with Whirling Death Whirling Death not only destroys Strength cores but also severely cripples the damage output of both Agility and Intelligence heroes.
Riki
A massive jump in win rate which is especially apparent in the 5k+ bracket potentially indicates that Riki is currently an "OP" hero. With changes to the truesight range on both towers and Gem of True Sight Gem of True Sight, the hero has gotten even more elusive, while direct buffs to the hero himself ensure a much higher and more consistent DPS.
One thing to note is the versatility of hero—he can be utilized in almost any lane in almost any position—it is not even uncommon to see him as a Bounty Hunter Bounty Hunter-style roamer. The gold he can acquire through the early-game kills usually makes up for the lack of farming potential, if the hero is not played as a position 1 core, ultimately resulting in an extra DPS hero for the team, one with high solo kill potential and great teamfight presence.
The new items Blight Stone Blight Stone and Echo Sabre both work well on him and function as cost efficient DPS solutions, especially when he is run as a roamer.
Biggest Losers (3%+ win rate decrease)
Outworld Devourer
Given how the hero was a lot less of a nuisance in the later stages of the 6.86 patch, it is unclear why it deserved such a strong direct nerf—there were simply too many things which went wrong for the hero. While his ultimate has potentially increased in strength in prolonged fights, the conditions on it are much harder to meet with the nerfs to Arcane Orb Arcane Orb. In his current form, he is a win-more hero, who excels in scenarios, where your team is already bound to win. More often than not, it is not a justifiable pick.
Arc Warden
The win rate of the hero has already been relatively low, yet it has plummeted even further. In his current form Arc Warden can no longer safely carry a Divine Rapier and constantly split-push and can't utilise Hand of Midas Hand of Midas as effectively. Perhaps a new way of playing the hero will emerge in the future, potentially even in a different position, but in this state Arc Warden is almost unplayable—he is too weak as a serious core hero and too farm and level dependent to be a good support. That said, the interaction between Tempest Double Tempest Double and the new Pipe of Insight Pipe of Insight is potentially worth exploring.
Enchantress
With the double impetus nerfs and a tankier meta, the hero feels slightly out of place in 6.87 games. Despite the introduction of Hurricane Pike Hurricane Pike, the hero suffers greatly from inability to focus down targets as fast as she is used to and her survivability is very limited. In a kill or be killed scenarios more often than not she is the one being killed in this patch.
It is also worth noting that some of her early-game DPS neutral creeps have received slight nerfs to their manapool, hence her presence in the early game has somewhat diminished. Moreover, a global increase in HP/Str benefits her the least of all the heroes in the game.
Medusa
When the former Stone Gaze Stone Gaze was reworked, the hero already got substantially weaker. While her previous ultimate had an immediate strong impact on the fight, the new one was usually conditional on too many factors and could be frequently misfired. With the new update, the immediate impact of her ultimate has been nerfed even further and despite perceived buff to its other aspects, they do not come into play as often as it is assumed, especially against higher tier opponents.
Moreover, there is currently a potential bug with the way Mystic Snake Mystic Snake interacts with illusions, since it does not steal their mana and therefore does not replenish the mana of Medusa herself.
Lone Druid
A massive damage reduction on Battle Cry Battle Cry coupled with the changes to armor and damage types have left the hero substantially worse off. Moreover, the armor aura from the towers makes harass on the hero slightly weaker in the laning phase and closes some opportunities on getting early game kills.
Tankier meta also does not necessarily suit the hero—the impact the Radiance Radiance and Entangling Claws Entangling Claws have is weaker. Moreover, many pop**ar core heroes come online slightly faster, compared to Lone Druid, and he can be outpaced in his race to relevance.
Notable Changes
Spectre
The hero has received a great deal of small nerfs. These did not completely destroy the hero, but her win rate has dropped by almost 3%. She is still an incredibly strong late-game core, but definitely not as dominant as she used to be. Once again, tankier match-ups are also a contributing factor in these win rate changes.
Invoker
A decrease in win rate of 2.5% is slightly surprising, given how well the hero scales with the changes to the Intelligence. Yet, with several small buffs and an annoying cast point addition the hero is not as good as he used to be. His win rate in the highest skill bracket is extremely close to the "ideal" value of 50%, however, so the changes are definitely working as intended.
Chen
A simple nerf to the Hand of God Hand of God interaction with the dominated creeps, as well as some smaller tweaks to the neutral creeps themselves have resulted in a 2% win rate decrease for Chen. Interestingly, however, the win rate fo the hero in the 5k+ games is still exceptionally high, sitting comfortably at 55%.
Final Thoughts
The new patch has brought a decent amount of changes to many game mechanics, yet the result is surprisingly mild. It might be the conservatism of both professional and pub players which results in slower transition to the new meta, whatever it might be, but in its current form, Dota is very similar to the state it was in 6.86, with a few notable exceptions.
Given how mild these changes were in the initial week, there are two possible outcomes—either the changes were not as drastic as they were perceived, and the game will slowly but surely develop, or, with the help of some experienced captain, it will revolutionize in a matter of several professional matches and will completely reform after the ensuing chaos. Both of these outcomes have their strengths, but the latter option is certainly more exciting.
