QORE Global

08/06/2026

Weekly Market View by QORE Finance | 01–08 June

Strong US data shifted rate expectations higher, triggering a tech-led equity sell-off and strengthening the USD. Crypto and metals weakened, while oil rose on geopolitical tensions.

All eyes now on US CPI and the ECB for direction next week.

01 June – 08 June Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

The US (rather than Iran) was the driver of both the news cycle and financial markets this week - firstly Broadcom missed on earnings which clouded the bullish AI thesis and led to a wave of profit taking after recent (huge) gains.

This along with Anthropic and SpaceX IPOs coming soon taking money/liquidity from other areas it makes sense to sell something if you want to buy in to the hot new IPOs, Google announcing they will be issuing more stock was also a drain on cash and valuations - simply put supply and demand is a huge market driver and we have some $215bio of supply hitting the market soon (SPCE $75bn, ANTH $60bn, GOOG $80bn) with Meta now joining the party as well.

We then got US employment data on Friday which showed lots more jobs added - this means with inflation about to print above 4% in the US and employment running hot, chances of a rate cut in 2026 went from being the expectation from a Warsh Fed, to being very unlikely and this affects both the cost of funding AI Capex as well as reducing the present value of future profits - again a negative for equities.

The Broadcom earnings were a flesh wound for equity markets but the payroll data was a deep cut leading to an almost 5% sell-off in the Nasdaq and the worst day for over a year, also breaking a 9 week streak of gains in the S&P500.

News over the weekend that Iran has launched missiles at northern Israel, who then retaliated, has sent the oil price higher in early Monday trading but it is notable that both equity futures and FX markets barely moved from the closing levels last week on this escalation.

Asian equities however had a bad open to this week - but this was catching up with the bloodbath in tech stocks seen in the US on Friday.

FX Markets

Macro market drivers are very much back after a blockbuster payroll print and the first Warsh FOMC on coming up on 17th June.

A month ago there was a 14% chance of a Fed hike by the end of the year (two months ago less than 1%), now that is over 75% priced in, with a 30% chance of more than one rate hike. The dollar is at the strongest levels for two months and 2yr yields are at the highest level in a year.

We also get the ECB decision on Thursday with a hike expected, and the BoJ is also expected to increase rates next week - interest rates are very much at the forefront of every FX pair at the moment.

The weak Yen remains close to intervention levels around 160-161 but it would make more sense for them to act at the same time as hiking interest rates, so next week is more likely to see big moves there.

Commodities and Crypto

Crypto stole the headlines this week with Strategy (the biggest holder of BTC) announcing that they had sold 32 BTC - with Saylor on record saying they wouldn't sell this was significant.

This triggered waves upon waves of crypto selling, taking BTC below 60k to levels not seen since before Trump won the election in 2024, and ETH losing almost over two thirds of its value from just 9 months ago and one third of its value from one month ago; alt-coins were similarly hit hard.

Gold and Silver lost ground as well by 5% and 10% respectively in the general risk off market as assets were liquidated across the board. One wonders how much the potential to buy into the upcoming SpaceX or Anthropic IPOs might be taking money out of other speculative asset classes, but we had several reasons to sell all hitting at the same time leading to this tsunami.

Oil was generally trading higher over the first half of the week as the Iran situation looked precarious, but as the noise died down people started to see some diplomatic green shoots leading to a more optimistic second half of the week, only to see things escalating over the weekend and oil going up again - Brent remains contained in a $90-100 range for now well below the highs seen in May.

Week ahead

A packed central bank calendar awaits with Bank of Canada (Wed - no change expected) and the ECB (Thu +0.25% expected) this week followed next week by Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting, the BoJ expected to hike, along with the RBA and BoE meetings.

With strong US domestic data last week we get US CPI on Wednesday expected to show inflation running over 4% interest rates are very much the focus going for a couple of weeks.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

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05/06/2026

The future is global - and it starts with the right foundation.

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05/06/2026

The future is global - and it starts with the right foundation.

www.qore.global | www.qore.finance | www.qorewm.com | www.qoremc.com | www.tailcor.com

01/06/2026

Markets stayed firmly in risk-on mode last week, with easing Iran tensions helping push the Nasdaq to fresh record highs and oil sharply lower.

This week, attention turns to US jobs data and inflation signals as investors assess whether the rally still has room to run. Read more in Weekly Market View by Clive Ponsonby, Head of FX, QORE Finance.

26 May – 01 June Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

Optimism around a deal with Iran ongoing for most of the last two weeks have led to strong and somewhat quiet markets. We are still in the negotiation phase but it seems a 60 day ceasefire extension is expected by almost everyone now and some ships are making it through the strait; I expect this is Iran trying to show positive intent whilst negotiations are still ongoing but it has allowed positivity to prevail.

Over the weekend some skirmishes and push back from both sides over the MoU being drawn up have taken the shine off but only just. Stocks opened last week after the long weekend reflecting that positive tone, with the Nasdaq making new all-time highs on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, and futures suggest another one incoming today. Chip stocks and Microsoft have been leading the rally but NVDA is notably not joining in with this recent rally.

FX Markets

Currencies were very quiet last week with the Eur/Usd range less than 100 pips, as the dollar strength and Euro rate hike expectations cancelled each other out. The biggest mover was NZD which rallied after the interest rate decision - although they left rates unchanged there were several voting for a hike which makes one more likely soon.

The Chinese Yuan marches on to fresh multi-year highs and Sterling was slightly weak. The Yen is still under pressure, the fact we are still at 159 despite reserve data showing over $70bn spent on intervention recently doesn't bode well with Tokyo CPI coming weaker than expected last week, but a hike this month is still mostly priced in.

Yields were following oil so moving lower slowly over the week, US PCE was slightly lower than expected and we also had US GDP revised down but this week’s Job report will be the key for the Fed outlook.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil remains heavy as hopes for a deal continue, falling almost 10% last week but a few percent higher today with the lack of progress over the weekend, a few ships making it through the strait has been a big driver in calming markets.

Gold and Silver made fresh lows for May last week, but recovered and ended almost unchanged on the week.

Crypto continued to trade fairly weakly with ETF outflows and a forced seller taking a loss to get out of the IBIT Bitcoin trust.

Week ahead

We get the key US Employment report on Friday, the pattern of the year has mostly been strong then weak reports, but we have had two strong payrolls in a row so will this streak continue? We also get ISM and Beige book from the US this week and European flash CPI on Tuesday as well as various PMI readings.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

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27/05/2026

Markets are pricing in optimism again - equities pushing higher, oil easing, and “95% done” headlines driving risk sentiment. But with geopolitics unresolved and cracks appearing beneath the AI-led rally, this week’s focus turns to whether markets are getting ahead of reality. Read more in Weekly Market View by Qore Finance.

18 May – 26 May Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

The deal is 95% done, was what we heard over the weekend, and oil is (a bit) lower as a result and stocks are likely to make fresh all-time highs when they open later today after holidays yesterday.

I feel like we have heard this several times before, and as far back as 9th March Trump was declaring things were "very complete, pretty much... over very soon" so for now we are still in somewhat of a limbo.

Even if things do get agreed in the coming days, we are talking about a 60 day extension of the ceasefire, partial opening of the Strait of Hormuz whilst other details are ironed out, and the red lines of both the US and Iran seem incompatible at the moment, so one can view these events as stalling from both sides whilst they plan for the next escalation.

Obviously for equities that is mostly irrelevant as indices power higher most days, but with NVDA last week we got the final one of the big name earnings and whilst they seemed to be great results on the face of it the stock itself is down a bit since then and underperforming other chip stocks which have been driving most of the market gains.

This is not that bullish and since the start of May only AAPL and TSLA of the Mag7 have outperformed the Nasdaq index.

With a lot of optimism priced in that the Strait will be open soon (in June at the latest) it seems ripe for some reality to hit if that doesn't transpire.

FX Markets

Currencies are fairly quiet overall considering the noise in other markets, Sterling rallied a lot at the start of last week as potential PM Andy Burnham made calming fiscal comments which reversed GBP weakness from the previous week with lower than expected CPI also helping the currency; Eur/Usd made new lows for May whilst trading well within a 1% range for the entire week - the Yen had a similarly tight range. Bonds hit their lowest levels on Tuesday or Wednesday then started to recover as the oil price started to ease. EM currencies which have been under pressure recently, also rallied with the oil price moving lower on optimism around a deal, my focus has been on India and China, the former hitting new lows in spite of heavy central bank intervention, the latter at the strongest levels in 3 years. Warsh was formally sworn in as Fed Chair as eyes now shift to his first meeting on 17th June.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil is still the driver and whilst a deal is being teased from both sides, they still seem to be far apart on certain issues, and it seems the most likely outcome is a situation where the US accepts a worse than pre-war scenario just to end things - they don't like Iran charging a toll, but (compulsory) services that require payment of a (compulsory) fee to Iran may be acceptable; if they won't accept this or can't agree something on Uranium then we either drag on as we have for the last three months, and see if markets do start to see shortages affect things - a lot of people were talking about June being the time this would happen - or we see some kind of escalation (unlikely IMHO).

Gold and Silver still trade weakly pulled higher by stronger risk sentiment and lower by yields, but the wind is definitely out of the sails on any move higher.

Crypto seems to have a similar malaise, after the first half of May saw breakouts higher, since then we have stalled, broken the trendline supports and shifted into reverse - when it comes to risk people are buying AI/Chip/Semis/Quantum/Energy stocks or salivating over the SpaceX IPO due in a couple of weeks whilst ignoring Crypto and precious metals.

Week ahead

In a somewhat quiet week ahead data wise, we get US GDP and Core PCE on Thursday, and Tuesday night / Wednesday morning Australian CPI and the NZ interest rate decision with no change expected.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

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Or via the contact form on our website www.qore.finance

19/05/2026

The future is global - and it starts with the right foundation.

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18/05/2026

Markets have shifted from “greed” to “fear” as oil, yields and geopolitics reprice risk across equities, FX and crypto.

Nvidia earnings and incoming macro data will be key in deciding whether the AI-led rally resumes or stalls.

Read more in Weekly Market View by Qore Finance

11 May – 18 May Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

Hormuz being closed didn't seem to matter for markets, but today it does; there's a bit more to it than that, but sentiment for the first half of May was that everything was fine in spite of high oil prices, since late last week that has shifted to more "fear" than "greed" - whether this changes direction or just means a period of consolidation is unclear for now.

The Trump-Xi summit was broadly positive but very little concrete was announced and hopes that the US might get China to use their leverage over Iran to bring things to a conclusion were dashed, the fact that Trump seems to be in favour of escalation again and also using language to suggest he either doesn't mind that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or expects it to be for some time also forced markets (and central banks?) to stop looking through the short term as it now looks to be a medium term situation.

Inflation and bond yields also inflicted some damage to sentiment, 10yr US yields +25bps on the week with Japan and UK yields jumping a little more (for their own reasons) and European yields 'only' +20bps - this just means chunky AI expenditure gets more expensive to fund, and future profits get discounted back more and are worth less today than they were a week ago, all hitting valuations.

NVDA results on Wednesday will therefore be pivotal for where markets go from here. Actions in the middle east are also likely to be volatile as there recent attacks seem to have intensified on both sides, although the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire seems to be holding for now.

FX Markets

US headline CPI, as well as Core CPI was above expectations with worrying trends reducing the likelihood of Fed cuts (notably "supercore" inflation which is Core services ex-housing at 3.4%), but the market didn't react too much until PPI came out the next day also much higher at +6% annually (vs +4.8% consensus) and then yields started accelerating, with 2yr +20bps and 10yr +25bps on the week.

US interest rate hikes were priced at zero for 2026 at the start of the week and although this had moved hawkishly from cuts being priced in, by Friday we are pricing in 60% chance of a hike by the end of 2026 in spite of Warsh being confirmed as the new Fed chair.

The dollar strengthened throughout the week, boosted by higher oil prices and US equity market exceptionalism still a net positive, anaemic growth in Europe reinforced the Euro market weakness as Eur/Usd traded to one-month lows.

Sterling was having a bad week in spite of a stronger GDP reading, but really capitulated when Andy Burnham's path to be the next UK Prime Minister was cleared with a sitting MP resigning allowing him a shot at a by-election (he has to be an MP to stand as leader); it will be no coronation as Wes Streeting has said he will stand for the leadership too, and we could have as many as four candidates - uncertainty will weigh on Sterling going forwards with Burnham seen as more left wing and fiscally loose which is a net negative for Gilts and the Pound, Streeting however has pitched himself as pro-Europe which has its own consequences.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil continues to trade higher, albeit gradually, but like boiling a frog the pain is slowly intensifying and being felt in different ways by different markets as shortages start to change behaviours.

Higher yields started to be a negative for risky and non-yielding assets which hurt Gold as the week went on, with Silver completely reversing a nice rally killing any bullish momentum that had been building up since late March.

It was a similar story in Crypto with BTC consolidating around 80k having had some bullish moves higher, but those were stopped and we reversed sharply over the weekend, ETH continues to trade even worse and we broke the one-month lows as well as trendline support on Friday; it was also notable that this was the first week of Bitcoin ETF outflows for several months.

Week ahead

As well as the ongoing situation in the middle east, the big driver will be Nvidia results on Wednesday 20th May after US markets close which could reaccelerate the equity market rally or dash any last hopes of the AI trade.

We get UK employment data on Tuesday, and CPI on Wednesday, with the Eurozone reporting inflation data the same day with both expected to drop slightly.

Elsewhere we get PMI data from various countries, FOMC minutes, Canadian and Japanese CPI and sentiment surveys from the IFO and University of Michigan.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

◽ [email protected]
◽ [email protected]

Or via the contact form on our website www.qore.finance

11/05/2026

De-escalation lifted markets, pushing equities higher and oil lower, while resilient US data keeps risk sentiment strong. All eyes now on Trump–Xi, US CPI, and UK politics - key tests for whether this optimism holds. Read more in Weekly Market View by Qore Finance.

4 May – 11 May Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Geopolitics and equities

De-escalation was the theme last week around Iran as various skirmishes were downplayed with the US pushing for some resolution with a "one-page memorandum of understanding" to end the war circulating for agreement.

Over the weekend Trump rejected the Iranian counter-proposal, but equities still set several new highs and oil went down - any retracements early today still indicate a much more positive market than a week ago, particularly with equities shrugging off high oil prices as the US consumer looks extremely resilient (for now).

There is also an expectation that the Trump-Xi summit late this week may yield some peaceful resolution with China having considerable influence over Iran.

UK local elections saw the ruling Labour party perform badly - but probably in line with expectations - any leadership challenge to Starmer will be seen as likely to lead to looser fiscal discipline and weaken both Gilt markets and Sterling, the next few days will be closely watched in case one of the big names steps forward to challenge for the leadership - with Wes Streeting the most likely candidate.

FX Markets

The US labour market is still very strong: non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, with the usual caveats about which sectors were creating jobs; but with inflation accelerating and employment still solid there seems little room to cut rates in the US, but no one is ruling that out in June.

We saw rate hikes in Australia and Norway last week, the latter was unexpected but more countries are breaking ranks from just waiting for the Iran situation to end. A weak Canadian Jobs report in stark contrast to the US, saw Usd/Cad move higher last week as the Loonie underperformed most other major currencies last week.

All eyes are also on the Yuan as it continued to strengthen beyond 6.80 ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. GBP is in focus on the political front, with Gilt markets a barometer of sentiment, a strong GDP print later this week may save the PM's bacon.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil was lower over the course of the week as the de-escalation trade gained momentum and risk assets performed pretty well overall, we are still high in absolute terms but the consensus is very much when the Strait of Hormuz opens, not if.

The comments from Modi over the weekend trying to reduce demand could be a canary in the coalmine for where things are going, but for now it seems to be just India talking this way. Gold and Silver traded pretty well last week as positioning seems more neutral, helped by positive risk sentiment.

Crypto continues its bullish price action and the slow pace helps it feel more sustainable, ETH is struggling to gain ground and losing pace with the rest of the crypto complex.

Week ahead

The Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday-Friday will be the big event of the week as it also has an impact on the Iran situation which I think will therefore be sidelined for the first half of the week as a result.

Scott Bessent is meeting Japanese leadership which will be closely watched by Yen traders, and US CPI on Tuesday is the biggest data release with 3.8% expected vs 3.3% last month and will bring into sharp focus questions for the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh especially in light of last week’s strong jobs report.

We also get UK GDP on Thursday, with stronger growth than the EU expected, but this will be less important than the future of PM Starmer for Sterling.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

◽ [email protected]
◽ [email protected]

Or via the contact form on our website www.qore.finance

05/05/2026

27 April – 4 May Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Geopolitics and equities

We are now in week 10 of the 4-6week excursion/war with the Strait of Hormuz still essentially closed to ships not allowed through by Iran, whilst various noise about negotiations keeps happening, focus of news bulletins has very much shifted away from the region - maybe Trump was distracted by the King’s visit; suffice to say it was not the main driver for stock markets, or even FX, this week.

We continue to make all-time highs in most big indices with earnings data relatively strong and the latest AI models all continuing to amaze.

The big earnings week saw GOOG and AAPL the big winners with META the big loser as large capex spending is seen as a negative right now.

Momentum is still strong for equities and risk assets in general, but after a strong April bounce we could be in for consolidation and a more sideways May.

Trump seems to be dismissing Iran’s latest proposal but a middle ground seems hard to find so the stalemate is likely to continue in the short term but announcements of a breakthrough are always possible.

FX

With the USD trading strong after the FOMC Usd/Jpy traded above 160 again on Thursday morning, but after a final verbal warning the BoJ intervened taking spot down to around 155.50 (approx 3%) and again the following day and even early on Monday to show the market it wasn’t a one-off.

Although the long term effect of intervention is usually negligible, in the short term (1-2weeks) it has a reasonable track record, half the time just stopping further depreciation, half the time causing meaningful appreciation: risk reward is skewed and the market was short yen so a period of position adjustment is likely.

Central bank meetings were largely uneventful, if slightly hawkish: Powell confirmed he will stay on ‘for a while’ and some of the dissent was hawkish in nature so US yields went up a little (but the oil price is a much bigger factor); the ECB was maybe the least hawkish (even with high HICP inflation data this week) and the market pricing of the future path of Euro rates also the steepest relative to what was realistic, the BoE also had some hawkish dissent.

All of which led to a weaker Euro and stronger Sterling with the USD somewhere in between, next week the RBA is likely to hike (about 75% priced in) which would be the third hike of the year. Last week US GDP disappointed slightly and inflation was still sticky, focus will be on US jobs data this week coming.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil was well supported in the first half of the week as stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz continued, but we saw some vague positive signs later in the week which pushed oil lower to close the week near the lows - the news that UAE was leaving OPEC was mildly dovish for prices but seemed to have limited impact.

Gold continued to trade on a the weak side but data showing central banks accumulating at the fastest rate in a year saw things stabilise, I feel we have shaken out weak retail longs so positioning is much cleaner and medium term flows are likely to support the price from here.

Crypto seemed to be failing to follow through after recent breaks higher, with BTC holding above the 75k previous highs we are still in a bullish zone on the technicals, and now we have gone above 80k at the weekend we may start to push higher; ETH looks less strong and still trades worse on the margin.

Next week

Aside from the RBA on Tuesday we get US employment data on Friday which will be more interesting for a change (as well as JOLTS and ADP earlier in the week): other job data from ISM/ADP has been relatively strong, and if non-farm payrolls follows then the Fed’s dual mandate really points to rate hikes in 2026 regardless of Miran and Warsh voting - currently only priced around 50:50 in the next 12 months, this could shift as far as one hike priced in by end of 2026 on strong data; we have to caveat that this data series is noisy and seen as slightly unreliable but can’t be ignored if it is strong along with all the other jobs data for a few months, since Core PCE is still at 3.2% and the 2% target hasn’t been hit for over 5years.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

◽ [email protected]
◽ [email protected]

Or via the contact form on our website www.qore.finance

27/04/2026

Markets are pricing resilience - but geopolitical risks remain unresolved. A packed week ahead with rate decisions across 🇯🇵 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇪🇺 plus major inflation data and tech earnings. Read more in Weekly Market View by QORE Finance.

20 – 27 April Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance

Equities and Geopolitics

The ceasefire was extended unilaterally by the US last week in an effort to get Iran's leadership to become more unified and negotiate, but the constant on/off nature of the 'Vance heading to Pakistan for talks' narrative is not great - it was pushed from Tuesday to the weekend and then cancelled altogether so we are still in this stalemate of a nominal ceasefire but with neither scheduled peace talks nor oil tankers moving through the strait of Hormuz.

On the positive side most non-energy markets seem to have shrugged off all the negatives and stocks continue to make all-time highs most days, boosted by corporate earnings (last week Intel) supporting sentiment that this week will bring another Mag7 bonanza with MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META and AAPL all reporting.

We are however in week 9 of this 4-6 week "excursion" and currently the market is expecting it to be over at some point, but the longer we have no oil flowing through the strait, the more likelihood there is of something breaking down or one side getting fed up and escalating the situation.

FX Markets

The Kevin Warsh senate hearing was calming for markets as he walked the tight line on independence whilst also calling for a change to a "new framework" and rejecting forward guidance; the real shift though was when the DOJ dropped their criminal probe against Powell and the Fed which allowed Sen.

Tillis to pave the way for his approval which means Warsh will almost certainly be chair for the June meeting as originally scheduled.

Weak European PMIs saw the Euro falter this week, along with continued high oil prices pressuring manufacturing; in contrast the UK data was slightly more rosy causing GBP to outperform, a lower unemployment rate at 4.9% (albeit helped by a lower participation rate) and moderate PMIs with CPI rising to 3.3% all boosting Sterling this week.

The Yen is still hovering near 160 and all eyes will be on Ueda this week after the BoJ meeting on Tuesday, there is a chance of some unexpected hawkishness which would lead to some Yen outperformance.

Commodities and Crypto

Oil continues to grind higher slowly from the mid-April lows as nothing is moving through the strait, the constant kicking of the can down the road between the US and Iran is leading to expectations that the stalemate will remain in place for months.

Gold and Silver traded weakly last week as they seemed to decouple from equity markets and overall Dollar directionality, the price action is pretty bearish short term.

Crypto traded really strongly last week, now we are out of the previous ranges we tested higher, and the positive momentum is building which is pretty constructive for medium term sentiment, but it was notable that BTC was outperforming ETH, the latter struggling to hold above 2400.

Week ahead

A big week for central banks with interest rate decisions in Japan, Canada, US, UK, EU this week in that order, although with no changes expected the focus will be more on the comments than the decisions.

Earnings from four of the MAG7 on Wednesday will be a highlight after the Intel beat and IBM miss last week, but it’s safe to say expectations are fairly high with equity markets at all-time highs.

Aussie inflation on Wednesday will be another key data point this week as the only major central bank likely to hike in the next month; we also get key EU inflation and GDP data and US Core PCE.

The situation in the middle east will continue to dominate overall direction though with a new proposal from Iran supposedly sent the US today.

Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:

◽ [email protected]
◽ [email protected]

Or via the contact form on our website www.qore.finance