17/08/2026
The Dollar fell as US economic data came in weaker, while Gold stayed strong and the Yen remained under pressure.
Oil prices were steady, but new inflation, jobs and central bank data could bring more movement to the markets this week.
Read Clive Ponsonby’s latest Weekly Market View.
10 August – 17 August Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby , Head of FX, QORE Finance
Equities and Geopolitics
The conflict in the Middle East has shifted to economic pressure with blockades and sanctions aiming to cut oil revenues from bolstering the Iranian regime. The MOU between the US and Iran expires today with little sign of renewal.
The overall stalemate with oil prices elevated but steady is leading to equities just grinding higher and making new highs in quiet summer markets bolstered by benign inflation data on top of soft (but not bad) job data which has quietened the hawks on the FOMC for the time being.
Expectations for Fed hikes have shifted in a few weeks from an odds-on hike in September and two by the end of 2026, to unlikely next month and only one by the end of the year and even that may evaporate with the Jackson Hole symposium later this month.
FX Markets
In the US CPI was in line with expectations, but a softer PPI and weak Retail sales (-0.6% vs +0.1% expected) and weak Michigan Sentiment left the Dollar was languishing this week as near-term hikes became less likely.
Central banks from Australia and Norway kept rates unchanged whilst both highlighted inflation pressures.
The market is testing the resolve of Japanese and US authorities after their joint effort to boost the Yen with intervention, as the currency slips towards the crucial 160 level with eyes moving towards a rate hike in September or October as the next leg to prop up the beleagured currency, having gone back above the 200 day moving average in both Usd/Jpy and Eur/Jpy last week.
Commodities and Crypto
The Oil price traded sideways last week as tensions remained but didn’t escalate and the shift towards economic pressure means less chances of a flare up, but a longer time before likely resolution to the conflict.
Gold continued to shine and remained near the $4,400 level bolstered by the weaker Dollar, with a breach of the $4,500 level key to any further gains with Silver largely following suit.
Crypto was fairly muted last week with ETF outflows which showed the recent inflows were a blip caused by people shifting to ‘safer’ ETFs from offline wallet storage after the Coldcard hack.
Week ahead
Canadian CPI on Monday is expected to show a rise closer to 3%, also the August 19th tariff deadline is approaching; an interim deal is expected, but it will be bad for the Cad if one is not reached.
We then get UK inflation data – expected to show a headline increase but a core decrease, backing up the purely energy led move whilst underlying price pressures are still subdued, we also get UK job data with the unemployment rate hovering near 5yr highs.
Later in the week we get to see the FOMC minutes with people unpicking the hawkish/dovish split within the committee and finally some European PMIs.
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