03/08/2026
Markets had another volatile week as geopolitical headlines, central bank decisions, and mixed Big Tech earnings kept investors on their toes. Oil, currencies, and equities all saw sharp moves, with attention now turning to US jobs data and the next steps from central banks.
Read Clive Ponsonby latest Weekly Market View for a straightforward look at what's driving the markets this week.
hashtag hashtag hashtag
27 July – 03 August Weekly Market View
by Clive Ponsonby, Head of FX, QORE Finance
Equities and Geopolitics
Over the weekend Trump called off "massive" strikes on Iran and claimed fresh talks would begin on Monday in what seems like a re-run of the previous weekend's news, the result of which was oil dropping over 10% in the early part of the week only to go back up by Friday as the situation escalated again.
Iran is claiming there are no talks but oil is still down this morning, we will wait and see if the pattern repeats or this ceasefire can last beyond the initial announcement.
Equities had a pretty rough week after the optimism of Monday morning was erased as soon as US markets opened and AI stocks got hit hard as rotation out of the sector continued, we then saw the Kospi index fall over 20% from the close on Friday 24th to Wednesday 29th (and down 44% from the June highs) almost blowing up a prominent hedge fund in the process before things bounced back sharply on Friday.
We had a set of mixed results from big tech, as dispersion between similar stocks seems to be the theme of the year rather than everything moving together. MSFT and AMZN were the big winners of last week, META, AAPL were the losers, but for AAPL it was just after making all-time highs so the bar was high for it to go up further.
Overall earnings so far have been strong justifying the S&P remaining within 2% of the highs but concerns over AI and Semiconductor stocks have caused rotation out of certain sectors.
FX Markets
The Fed left rates unchanged and given a hike was a live possibility, 2yr yields were lower afterwards but the long end (10yr+) were much higher as confidence in the new Fed actually fighting inflation evaporated and Warsh's credibility took a big hit; the Dollar moved lower as a function of both short end yields and lack of confidence in the Fed in the biggest weekly drop since April.
The BoE was unchanged and although 3 voted for a hike, there is still a wait and see approach here and overall it was perceived as dovish and chances of a September hike have reduced; in stark contrast Euro yields edged higher after strong CPI which increased chances of a September hike in the Eurozone - Eur/Gbp was higher on the week and Eur/Usd even more so.
On Thursday and Friday (and again early Monday morning) we saw joint intervention to buy Yen from Japan and the US - coordinated action like this is very unusual and has led to a big market impact.
Previous rounds of intervention in the yen, which have been only by the Japanese, have had little lasting effect so the question is will this time be different?
The selling of US treasuries by the biggest foreign holder will exacerbate the troubles in the long end of the US yield curve. We have also seen currency intervention in Korea and India.
Commodities and Crypto
Oil continues to whipsaw on headlines but there is still a lack of tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz and this is the key indicator. Gold and Silver continue to trade fairly weakly as yields stay firm and the lack of any safe haven bounce on tech stocks falling was notable, in fact arguably the relationship has flipped with margin calls in stocks being funded by selling precious metals so they go down in a market panic rather than up.
The Crypto world was rocked last week by the Coldcard Wallet Hack which drained wallets not even connected to the internet with over $88mio lost.
MSTR also sold more BTC last week, this reversed the recent upward trend in prices that had marked the first few weeks of July.
Week ahead
US employment data is the big event of the week on Friday with PMI and ISM data also out earlier in the week. For currencies the focus will be on any more Japanese intervention and how the market takes that. Iran headlines will also be closely watched.
There are some mid-tier earnings releases with the highlights being AMD, PLTR, UBER, DIS and SPCX - the latter will lead to a further tranche of shares that can be sold which may add selling pressure to the post IPO market yet again.
Should you have FX requirements or any questions, please contact us at:
[email protected] / [email protected]
Or via the contact form on our website www.qore.finance