Cropgpt

Cropgpt HSAT provides crop intelligence for buyers and traders of agricultural commodities.

We predict crop production, risks and pricing with high accuracy, months ahead of the market using satellite images, weather data, market data and ground truth.

10/08/2026

Close to half of Malaysia's palm oil production is concentrated in two states, Sarawak and Sabah, and both are experiencing prolonged dry conditions heading into harvest season.

Sarawak has seen the sharpest rainfall decline of any state in Malaysia. Sabah has been running below normal rainfall for around three months. Together these two states produce roughly nine million tonnes annually, nearly half the national total.

With harvest beginning in the coming weeks, the yield impact is still uncertain, but the window for recovery rain is narrowing. Sarawak's peat-heavy ground cover also adds a fire risk that could compound any production disruption from drought stress alone.

Procurement teams with palm oil exposure should be monitoring field-level conditions in both states as harvest progresses.

Data: cropgpt.ai

10/08/2026

Lower Austria has just experienced the hottest and driest week ever recorded in its sugar beet growing regions, with only 3mm of rain in seven days — 90% below the seasonal norm.

Temperatures running 27% above long-term averages have caused beet to stop growing entirely. This is happening during the critical bulking period, when the crop builds both its size and sugar content, with no forecast rain until mid-August.

Upper Austria is facing the same conditions, and Belgian beet producing regions have also been flagged as high risk. The combined pressure across multiple European origins points to a tighter supply picture for beet sugar this season.

Data: cropgpt.ai

09/08/2026

A third of Ukraine's grain export capacity halted in one week, and European milling wheat responded with a 7% rise.

Russia's warning that its Black Sea waters were unsafe, combined with Ukrainian ship owners halting arrivals, pushed buyers toward alternative origins. Loadings at the French port of Rouen doubled in a single week, surpassing 200,000 tonnes.

Russia is simultaneously dealing with restrictions on the Azov-Don Canal, the shallow-water route that carries around a quarter of its grain and sunflower oil exports. With the Russian export peak running August to October, deep water ports may not have the throughput capacity to absorb what the canal route normally carries.

For procurement teams with wheat or vegetable oil exposure, this is a moment to stress-test origin flexibility.

Data: cropgpt.ai

09/08/2026

Ghana's parliament has proposed a law that would make cocoa farmland protected, with penalties of up to 20 years in prison for farmers who repurpose their land without government approval.

The bill comes as cocoa prices have fallen from around $12,000 per tonne in 2024 to approximately $4,000 per tonne today. For farmers who invested heavily in preparing land for cocoa cultivation, that price collapse has already reduced their options significantly.

The harshest penalties target illegal gold mining on cocoa plots, with fines applied per cocoa tree affected. Gold mining has long served as a fallback income source for smallholders during periods of low crop prices.

The legislation has not yet become law and still requires the president's signature. If enacted, it will materially affect farmer decision-making and the longer-term supply picture from one of the world's most important cocoa origins.

Data: cropgpt.ai

08/08/2026

France's maize crop quality rating fell from 84% to 47% in the space of four weeks, as record heat struck during the critical pollination window.

Farmers are harvesting standing corn as animal feed because kernels failed to form. With only a third of the French maize area under irrigation, there was limited capacity to offset the heat damage.

CropGPT currently rates four of France's five maize-growing regions at high risk, and August rainfall forecasts offer little comfort. A harvest below eight million tonnes would be the smallest in 50 years, with real consequences for feed grain availability across the EU.

Data: cropgpt.ai

07/08/2026

Tancítaro, el municipio que produce aproximadamente el 80 % de las importaciones de aguacate de Estados Unidos, financia una fuerza de seguridad privada de 1,2 millones de dólares al año porque la extorsión cartelera alguna vez costó más que un ejército.

En 2014, los Caballeros Templarios generaban cerca de 150 millones de dólares al año del sector aguacatero de Michoacán, cobrando a los productores por hectárea y por kilo. Los productores locales hicieron los números y concluyeron que una fuerza privada era la opción más barata. Se creó el CUSEP, se expulsó al cártel y Tancítaro se convirtió en el municipio aguacatero más grande del mundo.

El modelo no se replicó limpiamente. Pueblos Unidos intentó el mismo enfoque en 2021 con 3 000 productores armados y 54 retenes en carretera. Para 2024, el Tesoro de Estados Unidos había sancionado a sus líderes por extorsión y narcotráfico.

Tancítaro resolvió su problema siendo lo suficientemente rico para pagar seguridad genuina. Para los profesionales de cadena de suministro que abastecen aguacate mexicano, el riesgo a nivel municipal es una variable de abastecimiento, no solo una condición de fondo.

Data: cropgpt.ai

06/08/2026

México es el único país productor importante de aguacate donde los modelos climáticos revisados por pares proyectan expansión neta en superficie apta, entre un 66 y un 87 % para 2050.

El contraste con otros productores es marcado. Chile ya perdió 10 000 hectáreas a causa de trece años de megasequía. Perú enfrenta una pérdida proyectada de hasta el 76 % de su superficie apta. República Dominicana hasta el 85 %. California proyecta perder el 40 % de su rendimiento aguacatero. El mecanismo es la estrecha tolerancia térmica de la planta de aguacate. A medida que ese rango se desplaza con el calentamiento, la topografía montañosa de México permite que la producción suba a través de 30 estados en altitudes de entre 1 200 y 2 300 metros.

La expansión no está exenta de riesgos. La tierra proyectada para volverse nuevamente apta se superpone significativamente con la Reserva de la Biosfera de la Mariposa Monarca, donde los modelos muestran más de 10 000 hectáreas de nueva superficie climáticamente viable para aguacate dentro de la reserva para 2070.

Para los equipos de compras, la creciente dominancia de México en el suministro de aguacate es estructural y está impulsada por la temperatura, no por ciclos de mercado.

Data: cropgpt.ai

06/08/2026

Researchers estimate that around 10% of the price of every avocado sold in America reflects cartel extortion fees charged along the supply chain.

The mechanism traces back to fentanyl. When synthetic opioids from Asia displaced Mexican he**in, cartels pivoted into agriculture. Michoacan's avocado production value rose 7,000% between 1994 and 2021, and the town of Tancitaro alone now supplies 80% of the US market.

Over 16,000 hectares of protected forest have been illegally cleared. Federal enforcement opened more than 5,500 procedures against producers between 2015 and 2022, but applied its strongest penalty only twice. Cartels charge growers per hectare, charge truckers for safe passage, and steal up to 10 truckloads a week. The February killing of the CJNG leader produced no measurable drop in extortion or theft.

This cost is structural, not incidental, and it will not ease until US overdose rates fall.

Data: cropgpt.ai

05/08/2026

La incipiente industria de destilados de agave de la India está construida enteramente sobre plantas cosechadas en estado silvestre que nadie cultivó y que pasaron más de un siglo catalogadas como maleza a lo largo de linderos y terraplenes ferroviarios.

El agave americana se extendió por la meseta del Decán durante el período colonial y fue en gran medida olvidado hasta que las destilerías comenzaron a reconocer su potencial comercial. Los altos impuestos a los destilados extranjeros crearon una oportunidad de mercado doméstico, y productores como Agave India y Maya Pi***la empezaron a hacer destilados de agave con stock silvestre. La primera botella comercial en la India salió en 2011.

Como no existen plantaciones cultivadas, consolidadores como el agricultor Masapalli Venkatesh hoy recorren casi 100 kilómetros recolectando cosecha silvestre de decenas de parcelas de pequeños productores para abastecer volumen constante a las destilerías dispuestas a pagar un sobreprecio por ello.

La India no puede usar la denominación tequila, ya que lo que crece silvestre allá es agave americana, no agave azul. El país está construyendo una categoría de destilados completamente nueva desde cero, con cadenas de suministro aún dependientes de stock silvestre no gestionado en lugar de agricultura organizada.

Data: cropgpt.ai

05/08/2026

India has wild agave growing across the Deccan Plateau, planted as living fences during the colonial period and left to spread for a century. Nobody farmed it. Nobody needed it. Until now.

With premium agave spirits commanding high prices globally, and imported tequila heavily taxed in India, a domestic industry has started building around the wild-harvested plant. Distillers including Agave India and Maya Pi***la launched their first bottles in 2011, after years of development. Because wild-growing Agave americana is a different species from Mexican blue agave, they cannot call it tequila and are building an entirely new category.

The supply chain has no plantations behind it. Everything is sourced from wild plants on farm boundaries and railway embankments, which makes aggregators like Masapalli Venkatesh, who now coordinates harvests across 60 miles of farms in southern India, the critical link in the chain.

Data: cropgpt.ai

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