AXSMarine

02/09/2026

🌊 El Niño is here. What could it mean for global agriculture?

In Episode 2 of the Current Intelligence Podcast, Maria Bertzeletou and Luke Nickels examine how a strengthening El Niño could reshape rainfall patterns and affect agricultural production across different regions.

The consequences are rarely uniform. Some areas face heavier and longer periods of rainfall, while others experience drought. From wheat, rice, corn and soybeans to palm oil, sugar and cacao, the effects can reach across a wide range of agricultural commodities.

Watch the clip, then listen to the full conversation on your preferred platform:
🎧 Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/current-intelligence/id6797585495
🎧 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0340PUZYInvSKKTScLUZwA
▶️ YouTube: youtu.be/w_YKlxEFacU

01/09/2026

📢 Resilient traffic, contrasting returns for Europe’s ferry operators!

🗓️ A selection of Europe’s leading ferry operators entered 2026 with sharply contrasting financial results behind them. Traffic remained broadly resilient during 2025, but capacity management, pricing power, route performance, and operators’ ability to pass on rising environmental and operating costs produced a wide spread in margins. Drawing on full year 2025 figures and the interim results available for 2026, AXSRoRo examines what lay behind these contrasting performances and whether they are beginning to converge.

📊 During 2025, passenger and freight demand largely followed a more familiar pattern after the disruption of the pandemic years. Economic growth nevertheless remained weak in several Northern European markets, while lower consumer confidence continued to affect leisure travel.

⚖️ The stronger and weaker results did not consistently follow changes in traffic volumes: rates, operating costs, and capacity utilisation often had a greater influence on margins. The economic outlook remained uncertain at the beginning of 2026, with growth expected to slow and geopolitical developments continuing to affect business and consumer confidence.

🚢 The performance of individual routes and networks also played an important role. Established services with a balanced mix of passenger and freight traffic generally provided greater stability, while start-up costs, capacity imbalances, and rate pressure affected earnings in parts of the market.

🌱 Environmental costs increased as the EU ETS requirement rose from 40% of covered emissions for 2024 to 70% for 2025 and 100% for 2026, while FuelEU Maritime took effect in 2025. The outbreak of war in the Middle East pushed energy prices higher during 2026, adding to fuel costs and inflation.

⚠️ This threatened to further weaken consumer confidence while making it more difficult for operators to recover higher costs through passenger fares and freight rates.

📰 Check out the rest of the article, as well as other latest news for short-sea, deep-sea ro-ro freighters and ro-paxes in the latest issue of our monthly AXSRoRo newsletter and join our growing community at https://cdanalytics.axsmarine.com/cn/aahwq/ro-ro-landing.

28/08/2026

🌏 CT Asia 2026 brings together the producers, traders, utilities, financiers and freight leaders shaping Asia’s coal markets, with a programme focused on the issues currently driving decisions across the region.

🤝 Philip Ralli, Sam Goh, Dinh PHAN and Esther Chua will be on the spot connecting with industry leaders and exchanging perspectives on the market dynamics shaping the region.

📊 With discussions covering Indonesia’s supply discipline, China’s demand, buy-side dynamics across India, Korea and Southeast Asia, freight volatility and contracting under policy intervention, CT Asia offers a space to discuss the questions currently shaping the market.

📍 See you in Bali, 27–30 September!

26/08/2026

📢 Bauxite flows are rising, but July shipment levels may be masking growing uncertainty ahead.

📈 Global seaborne bauxite flows reached 20 Mt in July, up more than 3% year-on-year, supported by a 5% increase in volumes destined for China.

🌍 The major driver was Guinea, where exports surged by more than 12% as buyers appeared to front-load purchases ahead of potential tighter export restrictions.

🔀 That dynamic leaves the market at a crossroads.

⚠️ China continues to provide a strong demand floor, but its aluminium supply chain remains particularly dependent on Guinean bauxite. If Conakry moves ahead with stricter export limits, July’s surge could quickly turn into tighter supply and greater volatility.

⛔ Meanwhile, flows to the UAE remain heavily disrupted, while India recorded only its second year-on-year decline of 2026.

🔎 In our latest Commodity Radar, we examine what July’s bauxite flows tell us about the outlook for August and September, and why Guinea’s export policy is now the key variable to watch.

🗞️ Read the full article at

25/08/2026

📢 Iran’s crude bottleneck is Hormuz; not the buyer!

🛢️ The Iranian crude that reaches Asia is being taken. The much larger constraint is getting those barrels through the Strait.

🛰️ Our latest AIS-derived data shows 76.9 million barrels of Iranian crude positioned across the Gulf region:
🔹 37.1 million barrels west of Hormuz
🔹 39.8 million barrels east of the Strait in the Gulf of Oman
🔹 Spread across 47 vessels, around seven in ten of them VLCCs

🌏 Meanwhile, Iranian-linked crude in Asian waters climbed from 22.8 million barrels in February to 46.0 million in July, before easing to 40.9 million in the latest August data.

🛳️ The vessel mix also reveals that parcel sizes become progressively smaller from the Middle East Gulf towards Chinese discharge points. This pattern is consistent with ship-to-ship redistribution rather than simple storage in bulk.

🗺️ Our latest analysis follows the barrels from the Gulf to Asia and answers where the real constraint in Iranian crude flows now sits.

📰 Check it out at

Iranian crude is backing up around Hormuz even as Asian buyers take available barrels, with 76.9 million barrels positioned across the Gulf region.

24/08/2026

📢 Syria’s tanker trade has changed dramatically in 2026!

📈 Our data shows seaborne wet cargo imports into Banias, Tartous and Latakia reached 17.03 million barrels between January and July, up 354% year-on-year.

🚀 But the bigger shift is on the export side. Just 0.23 million barrels were recorded in the first seven months of 2025. This year, that figure has reached 15.42 million barrels, with crude and fuel oil accounting for the vast majority of outbound volumes.

🛳️ The change is also visible in vessel activity: total wet cargo records across the three ports rose from 26 to 93, while Banias alone handled 96% of recorded wet imports.

🕵️‍♂️ Our latest analysis takes a closer look at:
▫️ How Syria’s import and export balance has shifted
▫️ The different roles of Banias, Tartous and Latakia
▫️ Which commodities are driving the growth
▫️ Where Syria’s imported oil is coming from

📝 Read the full blog at

Syria’s seaborne wet cargo trade surged in Jan–Jul 2026, with imports up 354% and exports climbing from near zero, led by Banias and Tartous.

18/08/2026

📢 A modest rise in global coal trade is masking a much sharper shift beneath the surface.

📈 Global seaborne coal flows increased by just 1% year-on-year to 116.5 mt in July, but the two main coal markets moved in very different directions:
▫️ Thermal (steam) coal flows fell 2.3% to 87.3 mt
▫️ Metallurgical (coking) coal flows jumped 11.8% to 27.2 mt

🌐 While weaker demand in Europe and the U.S. weighed on thermal coal, Asian imports remained resilient. Meanwhile, stronger met coal demand from China and Japan helped offset weaker Indian volumes.

🔮 Looking ahead, summer power demand across Asia and Q3 steel procurement are expected to keep seaborne coal trade well supported, with coal-carrying tonne-miles likely to remain above 2025 levels, providing a constructive backdrop for Panamax and Capesize demand.

📝 Explore the latest trends shaping coal trade and dry bulk shipping in our latest blog at

Seaborne coal flows rose 1% y-o-y in July 2026 as met coal surged 11.8%. Asian power demand and Q3 steel buying support dry bulk tonne-miles.

14/08/2026

☀️ From coastal cruises to marathon finish lines, our Athens, Sofia, and London teams have been staying connected and stepping out of the everyday over the past few months!

⛳ Athens immersed themselves in Greek olive oil tasting discovering its surprising complexity and tasting different varieties, tried their hand at golf in Glyfada at Golf Privé Glyfada with pro instructors, and wrapped up July with a stunning sunset sailing trip, complete with refreshing dips in the sea, delicious food, and great conversations.

🏃 Sofia brought incredible energy across the board, cheering on colleagues who took on a full marathon, pushing through fatigue and crossing the finish line together as a team, creating a festive Children's Day celebration for office families, filled with games and activities for all to enjoy and in July an escape to a lakeside resort for our summer team-building weekend, and taking remote work to new heights at a mountain hut on Vitosha.

🎡 London soaked up sunny city views from the London Eye, tested their aim over drinks at Flight Club, and enjoyed dinner and open-air Shakespeare at The Globe, we also took on the 26.6-mile South Coast Mighty Hike marathon along the coast to raise funds for Macmillan Cancer Support!

🤝 Whether we’re giving back, trying new sports, or taking in new sights, we’re proud of what our teams accomplish when we come together.

14/08/2026

📢 China’s coal-fired power demand remains resilient, but will it translate into stronger seaborne imports?

⚡ China entered the second half of 2026 with a smaller requirement for imported thermal coal, even as electricity demand continued to support coal generation.

👩‍🏫 Our latest China Thermal Coal Supply and Demand analysis finds that:
▫️ Settled seaborne thermal coal arrivals fell 13.5% YoY to 109 Mt in January–May
▫️ Coal still supplied 49.7% of China’s electricity in H1 2026
▫️ Domestic production remains the foundation of supply
▫️ Our central outlook puts H2 imports at around 21–23 Mt per month

📅 June and July have shown a stronger import picture, with preliminary arrivals of 27.6 Mt and 26.3 Mt respectively, narrowing the seven-month YoY decline to 4.8%.

🛳️ For dry bulk shipping, the implications extend beyond headline import volumes. Panamax vessels carried 65.7% of China’s seaborne thermal coal in 2025, while sourcing patterns can have a substantial impact on vessel demand. Indonesian cargoes dominate by volume, but longer-haul Australian supply contributes disproportionately to tonne-miles.

📰 Read the full analysis for the outlook scenarios, shipping implications and key risks shaping China’s thermal coal market through the second half of 2026 at

China’s thermal coal imports are expected to remain contained in H2 2026 as strong domestic supply and renewable growth offset resilient power demand.

13/08/2026

📢 Chinese buying is building the next US soybean export programme, but physical shipments are yet to catch up.

🌱 China has stepped up purchases of new-crop US soybeans since late June, building forward commitments ahead of the upcoming US export season.

👨‍💻 Yet our data shows that physical US–China soybean departures remained subdued at the end of July, with the 7-day moving average at around 11,000 tonnes/day.

🕵️ The gap between forward buying and actual loadings now creates an important market signal to watch: when will those contracted volumes begin translating into physical cargo flows?

ℹ️ In our latest blog piece, we also examine:
• Capesize strength as the BCI climbed to 5,105
• A broad Panamax rate recovery
• Diverging Supramax regional trends
• Softer Handysize conditions and rising ballaster supply

📰 Read Maria Bertzeletou's full analysis for the latest freight, vessel positioning and demand/supply insights at https://public.axsmarine.com/blog/chinese-buying-builds-the-next-us-soybean-export-programme .