Mortgage Sandbox

04/21/2026

Rates are likely to stay flat or move higher in the short to medium term 📈

The Bank of Canada is expected to hold steady on April 29th, but prime and fixed rates have already moved off their lows.

With prime now at 4.45% and 5-year fixed rates hovering at 3.9 to 4.6%, the window for significantly lower rates appears closed for now.

Swipe through the charts 👉

If variable rates rise, locking in a fixed 5-year rate will look like a stroke of genius in hindsight. Remember, 50% of mortgage holders missed out on locking in a 2% mortgage rate during COVID.

If you’re planning a purchase or renewal, don’t wait for a big drop that may not come. On purchases, get a 120-day rate lock with your pre-approval, just in case.

📊 Source: Mortgage Sandbox / Properi Edge Solutions Inc.

04/17/2026

Two markets. One city. Where do you stand? 🏡🏙️

Toronto detached = almost a seller's market, leaning in favour of sellers.
Toronto condos = recently crossed from buyer's advantage to balanced conditions, trending in favour of sellers.

Rates are rising, which hurts buyer budgets. There is a mountain of new build inventory.

New build condos are expensive! At nearly $1M, they are nearly double the cost of a resale condo. The HST cut helps, but it’s not a magic wand.

Watch the full breakdown 👆 Then drop a comment:

🔹 Are you buying or selling this spring?
🔹 Detached, condo, or townhouse — where would you put your money?

👇 Let me know below.

Follow us for your next Toronto market update. Tag a friend who needs to see this.

04/05/2026

Two markets. One city. Which side are you on? 🏠🏙️

Calgary detached houses = seller’s market.

Condos = tipping toward buyers.

And with mortgage rates already rising due to global events, the window to move could be closing.

Watch the full breakdown 👆 Then drop a comment:

🔹 Are you buying or selling this spring?
🔹 House or condo – where would you put your money?

👇 Let me know below.

Follow us for your next Calgary market update. Tag a friend who needs to see this.

04/05/2026

Metro Vancouver real estate update for April 2026. Both detached houses and condos are in buyer's market territory. Here's what you need to know.

Detached homes: 9.1 months of inventory (down 6% from last year). Demand is up 8%, but prices are down 9% over the past year. The benchmark price is now $1,855,000. Still a buyer's market, but trending slightly toward sellers.

Risks to watch: The Iran conflict has pushed 5-year fixed mortgage rates up 0.25%. That cools demand. Also, detached home prices are 20.6 times local median income (a healthy range is 4 to 6 times). That's a real bubble risk.

Risks to watch: The Iran conflict has pushed 5 year fixed mortgage rates up 0.25%. That cools demand. Also, detached home prices are 20.6 times local median income (a healthy range is 4 to 6 times). That's a real bubble risk.

For condos, new developments on the Cambie corridor are asking $1,200 per square foot, but similar 5-year-old resale units are $1,000. Buyers are choosing resale.

Bottom line: Buyers have the upper hand. But rising rates and global risks could keep the market cool for another two years. Price realistically if you're selling. Negotiate hard if you're buying.

03/23/2026

The narrative around Canadian real estate is shifting and the data confirms it.

We’re looking at a convergence of factors that, on a balance of probability, suggest most Canadian markets will see further price declines in 2026.

📉 𝗦𝗵𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗼𝗽𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀: While national numbers grab headlines, several major metro areas are seeing domestic outflows and reduced international student enrollment, softening demand.

🏦 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 & 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗳𝗳: The anticipated mortgage renewal tidal wave is here. Homeowners who secured sub-2% rates are facing payment shocks of 40-60% at renewal. Not everyone will weather that storm.

🏗 𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀: Bankrupt developers and headlines about crooked real estate brokerages aren’t just noise. They signal deep liquidity issues. When builders can’t finance projects, it forces inventory adjustments and shakes consumer confidence.

💸 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗲-𝗦𝗮𝗹𝗲 𝗙𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘂𝘁: We’re seeing a brutal reality for pre-sale buyers. With market prices now 20% lower than contract prices in some regions, buyers are walking away from six-figure deposits because they can’t (or won’t) cover the appraisal gap. This isn’t isolated, it’s a wave of distress that will weigh on future project viability.

𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗵𝗮𝗽𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗶𝘀𝗻’𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰𝘀. 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝘀𝘆𝗰𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆.

In 2022, more than 60% of Canadians believed prices would rise in the next year. Today, less than 40% share that view. Sentiment is the tide that lifts, or sinks, all boats.

When the majority stops believing prices only go up, the bid-side support evaporates.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲: Between the affordability ceiling, the renewal shock, and a severe shift in sentiment, the path of least resistance for 2026 appears to be lower.

01/23/2026

Inflation, interest rates, and mortgage costs are all moving pieces of the same puzzle, and 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for Canadians trying to make sense of it all.

We’ve just published a new article that breaks down:

1. Why inflation is expected to hover near (but not comfortably below) the Bank of Canada’s 2% target this year

2. How the latest CPI data will likely shape next Wednesday’s rate announcement (January 28, 2026)

3. What the major bank forecasts are signalling for the Bank of Canada rate, 5‑year Government of Canada bond yields, and both variable and 5‑year fixed mortgage rates over the next two years

4. What this could mean in practical terms for borrowers facing renewals or considering a new purchase in 2026–27

If you or your clients are planning mortgage decisions this year, this piece connects the macro story to real‑world rate expectations in clear, accessible language.

📌 Read the full article here: https://www.mortgagesandbox.com/news/the-bank-of-canadas-next-move-is-likely-a-pause

At the end of the article, you’ll also find a link to the Mortgage Sandbox Mortgage Rate Forecast, which consolidates multiple bank forecasts into one easy‑to‑scan view.

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Inflation is closer to target, but not low enough.

12/02/2025

Calgary's real estate shift is creating clear winners and strategic opportunities. My latest for The Globe & Mail breaks down what the latest data means for you.

The dynamics are diverging:

🏡 Detached Homes: Still a seller's market, but cooling. Inventory is up 32%, and the benchmark price has softened 3% in three months.

🏢 Condo Apartments: Now a balanced market tilting toward buyers. Inventory is up 57% year-over-year, and prices are down 8.4% from last November.

This isn't just a market update—it's a strategic guide. I analyze what these conditions mean for three key groups:

✅ First-time condo buyers: A major window of opportunity has opened.

✅ Families upsizing: A more nuanced path, but a better trade-up environment.

✅ Retirees right-sizing: A potentially advantageous "sell high, buy lower" moment.

The key takeaway? One market no longer fits all. Your next move depends entirely on which segment you're leaving and which you're entering.

Read the full analysis here: www.mortgagesandbox.com/news/calgary-property-market-shifts-as-supply-rises-across-segments

The Calgary real estate market is undergoing a notable rebalancing.