08/28/2026
Two Canadian financial data points landed within 24 hours of each other last week. Read side by side, they say more than either does alone.
Thursday: the Bank of Canada's Q2 SLOS showed overall business lending conditions at -1.04, down from +0.96 in Q1. First negative reading since Q4 2025.
Wednesday and Thursday: Capco put first-party fraud alone at a C$2.5B Canadian FI economic exposure, with 36% of Canadians hit by attempted payment fraud in the last two years, and only 33% very confident their FI would protect them.
Two files, one customer.
The applicant whose credit conditions just tightened is the same person whose incentive to stretch an application, dispute a legitimate charge, or lean on friendly-fraud tactics just got stronger. If credit models and fraud models score them separately, each will blame the other for the loss.
Three questions worth the exec table this week:
Are we treating first-party fraud as fraud loss or as credit loss - and does that choice flatter or worsen our headline PCL?
If business non-price conditions tighten another notch in Q3, which segments do we pull back from first?
With 52% of Canadians unable to recall being told anything about deepfake threats by their FI, what do we publish in the next 90 days that would earn a retention point?
Q3 earnings starts Monday. The RTR By-law and Rules come into force the same day. The lenders whose fraud, credit, and customer communication stories are already the same will make the next six weeks look easy.
Read more: https://hubs.li/Q04vF4NC0