Cryptos Fund Trading (2026)

No investment advice, client execution or regulated financial services. C.FT Ltd, incorporated in The Bahamas, leverages expertise developed since 2017 within the crypto and blockchain ecosystem. The company now focuses on infrastructure development, technology research, and specialised institutional consulting for digital asset and fintech counterparties. This channel is maintained for informatio

nal purposes only. C.FT does not provide investment advice, client execution or any regulated financial services. For institutional enquiries or collaboration:
[email protected]

23/01/2026

CFT | Institutional Update

CFT is transitioning to a more scalable, institutionally focused structure.

Our activities are now centered on technology and ex*****on infrastructure, quantitative research, and institutional consulting for digital asset initiatives.

We continue to support regulated funds, brokers, platforms, and fintech firms operating within the digital asset ecosystem.

📩 Institutional inquiries: [email protected]

01/10/2025

📊 CFT Monthly Report – September 30, 2025 | 🪙Crypto & 💼Macro Market Outlook | BTC, ETH, DXY, Treasuries

🪙 Crypto Markets – BTC & ETH
→ BTC declined -7.3% week-over-week, closing near $109,696, though it still ended September +6% and +23% year-to-date.
→ ETH dropped -9.8% to $4,034, closing the month -4.4% but remains +26% year-to-date.
→ Investor appetite remained firm with $1.9bn in inflows last week, bringing YTD totals to $40.3bn.

📈 Global Macro Markets
→ U.S. Equities ended mixed: S&P 500 slipped -0.3% and Nasdaq -0.7% as quarter-end flows weighed on AI-heavy stocks.
→ Both indices marked their fifth consecutive positive month: S&P +2.9% in September (+14% YTD), Nasdaq +4.8% in September (+16.4% YTD).

💵 Fixed Income & FX
→ Treasury yields edged higher: 10-year near 4.17% and 2-year at 3.64%, lifted by stronger GDP data and lower jobless claims.
→ Markets still expect a 25-bps cut in October (92% probability), with the September jobs report likely to be decisive.
→ The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded to 98.6, remaining rangebound with resistance near 98.3 and support near 93.0.

⸻

🎥 Watch the video for the full report — including BTC, ETH, DXY, Treasuries & Market Outlook.
👉 Full PDF report is shared privately — DM to request it.

⸻

💼 Reminder:
C.FT Ltd provides API-based, non-custodial crypto trading ex*****on.
We do not hold client funds, do not offer portfolio management, financial advice, or custodial services. Clients retain full control of their Binance corporate accounts at all times.

⸻

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🌐 https://cryptosfundtrading.com

25/06/2025

📊 C.FT Monthly Report — Tuesday, June 24, 2025

🪙 Crypto Markets – BTC & ETH
BTC and ETH ended the week lower amid rising geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty.
→ BTC dropped -2.6% to ~$103,300, hitting a weekend low of $98,240 after U.S. strikes on Iran triggered risk-off sentiment.
→ ETH fell -6.7%, trading around $2,406.
→ BTC remains +7.5% YTD, still 11% below its ATH of $112,000 (May 22).
→ Despite volatility, digital asset investment products posted their 10th consecutive week of inflows, totaling $1.24bn, with YTD inflows of $15.1bn.

📈 Global Macro Markets
U.S. equities softened as geopolitical risks and cautious Fed messaging weighed on sentiment.
→ S&P 500 closed -0.2% at 5,968, Nasdaq edged +0.2% to 19,447.
→ Markets remain range-bound, driven by war headlines, inflation fears, and rate cut expectations.
→ YTD: S&P +1.5%, Nasdaq +0.7%, supported by strong earnings earlier this quarter.

💵 Fixed Income & FX
→ Treasury yields held steady. The Fed kept rates unchanged but signaled two possible cuts this year.
→ The 10-year yield stood at 4.38%, the 2-year at 3.91%.
→ The Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 98.77 on safe-haven flows, testing resistance near 99.50.

⸻

🎥 Watch the video for the full report — including BTC, ETH, DXY, Treasuries & Market Outlook.

👉 Full PDF report is shared privately — DM to request it.

⸻

💼 Reminder:
C.FT Ltd provides API-based, non-custodial crypto trading ex*****on.
We do not hold client funds, do not offer portfolio management, financial advice, or custodial services. Clients retain full control of their Binance corporate accounts at all times.

⸻

🔗 Schedule a call:
https://cryptosfundtrading.com/schedule-a-call

🌐 https://cryptosfundtrading.com

29/04/2025

Weekly Report CFT Monday, April 28th, 2025

BTC and ETH posted sharp gains over the past week, driven by easing trade tensions, but are set to end April with mixed performances. After rebounding from a low near $74,400 on April 7, BTC rallied to a high of $95,815 before settling near $94,700 last Friday and is on track for a +14% monthly gain. ETH, despite a late-month bounce near $1,800, remains down about - 2% month-to-date. April also saw momentum from BlackRock’s BTC ETP launch in Europe, excitement ahead of Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade on May 7, and rising expectations for a U.S. Solana ETF. Meanwhile, the nomination of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins as SEC Chair lifted sentiment, while digital asset products recorded their largest weekly inflows since December ($3.4bn), bringing YTD net inflows to $3.5 billion, according to CoinShares.

US equities posted a strong rebound this week, lifted by easing tariffs talks and a tech-led rally driven by Tesla and Nvidia. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed near 5,525 and 17,383, gaining +4.6% and +6.4%, respectively. Markets surged after President Trump announced major tariff reductions on Chinese goods, easing trade fears that had weighed on sentiment earlier in April. Despite the consumer sentiment index falling to 52.2, its lowest since July 2022, optimism returned on hopes of reduced tariffs and speculation that the Fed could start cutting rates later this year. The VIX retreated to 25, though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain down -6.1% and - 7.4% year-to-date, respectively.

U.S. Treasury yields edged lower this week as potential tariff rollbacks and comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplaying the recent spike in yields revived demand for risk assets, while weaker economic data reinforced expectations of future Fed cuts. The 2-year and 10-year yields fell to lows around 3.45% and 3.86% early April, before recovering to 3.76% and 4.26% last Friday, as markets now price in a 57% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in June 2025. Cooling inflation pressures and Bessent’s reassurance helped push bond yields lower despite lingering economic uncertainties.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained under pressure, slipping toward a three-year low near 98 before stabilizing. The index closed the week near 99.59 as of last Friday. A decisive move below 98 could open the door to further downside, while a recovery above 100 would be needed to challenge the bearish trend.

Oil prices closed the week higher, with WTI trading near $63, after a volatile month that saw prices hit a four-year low near $55, dragged down by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and OPEC+'s unexpected decision to boost May output by 411,000 barrels per day — more than triple initial plans. Optimism later returned thanks to positive U.S.-China trade talks, boosting hopes for stronger demand, while renewed tensions around U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations added upward pressure. Markets remain sensitive ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on May 5, where Saudi Arabia is expected to push for further production increases.

BTC and ETH are trading slightly higher today as investors brace for a data-heavy week, starting with Wednesday’s ADP jobs report (expected +123,000), Q1 U.S. GDP data, and March Core PCE inflation (+0.1% expected). Key releases later in the week include April ISM Manufacturing and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (+129,000 expected). Housing updates with Construction Spending and Pending Home Sales will also be watched midweek. On the earnings front, results from Amazon, Apple, McDonald’s, AMD, Eli Lilly, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Qualcomm will provide insights into corporate resilience amid lingering growth concerns.

Client Update: Recent Trades & Market Outlook

Recent Actions

Over the course of April, we closed 13 trades, all profitable except for one neutral reallocation. As of April 28, our portfolio exposure to the market stands at 35%, composed of 34% in long positions and 1% in short positions, with the remaining 65% held in cash. Our long exposure is diversified across large-cap and altcoins such as ETH, ARB, OP, and IMX, among others, while our only short position is a 1% allocation in SUI.

We currently have no BTC short exposure but plan to initiate short positions if BTC decisively breaks above $96,000 while remaining flexible and ready to adjust our positioning based on broader market conditions.

Market Strategy

Since our last report on March 20, BTC struggled to gain upside momentum amid tariff speculation, pulling back to a low of $74,388 on April 7 before regaining strength later in the month as trade tensions eased. The price broke above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, eventually reaching a high above the $95,000 mark amid strong institutional inflows. While BTC is currently consolidating near $94,000, a sustained breakout above $95,000 could pave the way for a retest of $100,000 and $108,000. Conversely, lingering tariff uncertainty could reignite bearish pressure and push the price back toward $90,000 and $87,000, where the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level currently lies.

Market Outlook

As highlighted in our last report, we continue to anticipate a mid-term bearish cycle through 2025 rather than a short-term correction. Broader market conditions — particularly the ongoing equity market volatility, persistent inflation pressures, and a high interest rate environment — could continue to weigh on BTC and other risk assets.

While the recent rebound above $95,000 reflects improving sentiment following easing trade tensions, we remain cautious given lingering downside risks tied to U.S. tariff policy, persistent inflation, recession concerns, and geopolitical instability, including the Ukraine-Russia conflict. These factors continue to fuel market uncertainty and volatility.

In this environment, we maintain a defensive stance, focusing on key technical support levels while closely monitoring macroeconomic developments that could shift BTC’s momentum.

BTC

BTC posted sharp gains over the past week, driven by easing trade tensions. After rebounding from a low near $74,400 on April 7, BTC rallied to a high of $95,815 before settling near $94,700 last Friday and is on track for a +14% monthly gain. Sentiment was further supported by BlackRock’s BTC ETP launch in Europe and the nomination of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins as SEC Chair. Meanwhile, digital asset investment products recorded their largest weekly inflows since December ($3.4 billion), bringing year-to-date net inflows to $3.5 billion, according to CoinShares.

On the daily chart, BTC has broken beyond its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, currently near $90,600 and $89,300, confirming a bullish breakout. Immediate resistance stands at $95,000, with extension targets at $100,000, $103,000, and $108,000. On the downside, support lies at $90,000, with further downside risk toward $87,000, acting as the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

After rounding up 2023 performance to +155% and 2024 up +121%, BTC’s 2025 YTD is currently at +0.6%.

ETH

Like BTC, ETH hit a low near $1,385 early April and posted a late-month bounce, hitting a high near $1,855 and settling last Friday near $1,785, gaining +12.3% over the week. The cryptocurrency is still set to end April down about -2% overall. Price action remains choppy despite improving market sentiment following easing trade tensions and renewed excitement around Ethereum’s upcoming Pectra upgrade, scheduled for May 7.

On the daily chart, ETH found support near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($1,570) and is attempting to reclaim the key $2,000 psychological mark. On the downside, $1,500 and $1,250 — corresponding to the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement — serve as the next major support zones.

After gaining +90% in 2023 and +46% in 2024, ETH’s year-to-date (YTD) performance for 2025 currently stands at -46%.

Other markets

US equities posted a strong rebound this week, also lifted by improving trade talks and a tech-led rally driven by Tesla and Nvidia. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed near 5,525 and 17,383, gaining +4.6% and +6.4%, respectively. Markets surged after President Trump announced major tariff reductions on Chinese goods, easing tariff fears that had weighed on sentiment earlier in April. Despite the consumer sentiment index falling to 52.2, its lowest since July 2022, optimism returned on hopes of reduced tariffs and speculation that the Fed could start cutting rates later this year. The VIX retreated to 25, though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain down -6.1% and -7.4% year-to-date, respectively.

On the daily charts, the S&P 500 briefly dipped to a low near 4,835 before initiating a recovery toward 5,500, where it is currently trading. The 5,650 area now acts as the next major resistance zone, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, followed by the 200-day MA at 5,700.

The Nasdaq followed a similar trajectory, finding support near 15,870 last week and now consolidating around 17,400. While recent tariff de-escalation has provided relief, markets remain on edge amid ongoing trade negotiations and inflation risks ahead of the FOMC meeting on May 7.

After ending 2023 up +24% and +43%, and 2024 up +28% and +29%, S&P and Nasdaq’s YTD performances are currently -6.1% and -10%.

DXY

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US Treasuries

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Disclaimer:
Cryptos Fund Trading provides ex*****on-only services. We do not offer financial advice or portfolio management. All content is for informational purposes only.

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31/01/2025

Weekly Report CFT Thursday, January 30th, 2025

BTC and ETH have had a mixed start to 2025, with BTC up +13% in January and on track to close the month above $105,500, while ETH lags with a month-to-date decline of -7.66%. BTC has been gaining momentum amid expectations of a more favorable regulatory environment under the new U.S. administration. This week, BTC is up +0.7%, trading near $105,700, while ETH is down -1.2%, nearing around $3,250.

U.S. equities started the week with a sharp drop, led by heavy losses in tech stocks after the release of DeepSeek’s lower-cost AI model, which requires significantly less development capital than OpenAI’s $10 billion investment in its most advanced models, R1 and O1. NVIDIA plunged 17% on Monday. However, markets rebounded on Tuesday, buoyed by strong Big Tech earnings and the Fed's decision to keep rates steady, signaling a more measured stance on inflation. By Thursday, the S&P and Nasdaq closed near 6,081 and 19,691, respectively, as investors digested a weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP print (+2.3% vs. +2.6% forecast), with the VIX hovering around 15.8.

U.S. Treasury yields tumbled to their lowest levels this year as investors rushed to safe-haven bonds amid a sharp tech selloff. The 2-year and 10-year yields fell to 4.17% and 4.49%, respectively, reflecting heightened risk aversion. A weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP print (2.3% vs. 2.5% forecast) added to concerns over slowing economic momentum. Investors remain cautious following the Fed’s policy decision and its cautious stance on inflation, while uncertainty lingers ahead of Trump’s looming tariff deadline. Markets now price in a 47% chance of a 25bps rate cut by June 2025.

DXY remains under scrutiny after US GDP missed expectations, with FX markets focused on upcoming US trade policy updates ahead of the Feb. 1 tariff deadline. The index struggles to reclaim the 108.00 level, with resistance at 109.30 and 110.20. Support holds at 107 though further downside could be tested. Traders also eye the potential Fed influence of Trump, which adds uncertainty to the outlook.

Oil prices remain under pressure, with WTI trading near $73, below its 200-day MA at $75. Bearish sentiment persists amid oversupply concerns from a potential US-OPEC+ supply war, weaker demand following recent US winter storms, and rising crude stockpiles (+3.46M barrels for the week). Traders are closely watching OPEC+’s February 3 policy meeting and looming US tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

Stocks and cryptocurrencies showed a strong recovery this past few days as things quieted down with markets now looking forward to the remainder of this week with the release of the December PCE price index as well as earnings from ExxonMobil, and Chevron among others.

Client Update: Recent Trades & Market Outlook

Recent Actions

Over the course of January, we took profits on all our trades, realizing a total portfolio gain of +5% for the month so far. This week, we opened long positions on select altcoins, including ARB, OP, TON, and AVAX, when BTC retraced to $97,700 on perpetual futures. Additionally, we recently opened a short position on SUI, bringing our overall market exposure to approximately 10%.

Market Strategy

We are closely monitoring the $105,000 pivot level, as a daily close above that trendline could trigger a push toward $108,000. On the downside, we are now considering $90,000, $80,000, and $75,000 as key levels where BTC could find major support, presenting opportunities to build larger long positions. For now, our strategy remains focused on swing trades with limited exposure, while preparing for more aggressive allocations if BTC approaches these levels in the coming weeks or months.

Market Outlook

BTC may face a more prolonged correction than initially anticipated, as we expect a mid-term bear cycle through 2025 rather than a short-term pullback. Broader market conditions— particularly a potential extended correction in equities and a persistently high interest rate environment—could continue to weigh on BTC and other risk assets. Additionally, recent challenges brought by DeepSeek may disrupt institutional allocation strategies across tech, energy, and cryptocurrency sectors. Given these factors, we remain cautious in the near term while positioning for strategic re-entries at key support levels.

BTC

BTC is set to end January 2025 with solid gains, currently up +13% and on track to close the month above $105,500. The cryptocurrency has been gaining momentum amid expectations of a more favorable regulatory environment under the new U.S. administration. This week, BTC is up +0.7%, nearing $105,700, while total inflows for 2025 have reached $4.7 billion, according to CoinShares’ Digital Asset Fund Flows report.

On the daily chart, BTC is testing the ascending trendline, which currently acts as a pivot near $105,000. While the short-term bias still leans to the downside, a daily close above this trendline could open the door for an upside move toward the $108,000–$111,000 range.

We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for BTC, supported by expectations of a favorable regulatory stance under Trump’s administration, growing institutional adoption, and the Fed’s anticipated rate-cut cycle, which could encourage a shift toward riskier assets. However, we acknowledge the increasing likelihood of a prolonged bearish cycle, which could extend for several months, with the potential consecutive red monthly candles in 2025. A slowing U.S. economy and persistent equity market weakness could further weigh on sentiment, reinforcing the need for a more cautious approach in the medium term.

After rounding up 2023 performance to +155% and 2024 up +121%, BTC’s 2025 YTD and MTD performances are currently at +13%.

ETH

Unlike BTC, ETH has had a more challenging start to the year, with the cryptocurrency down -2% in January as it struggles to capitalize on the momentum triggered by the new U.S. administration. Over the week, ETH is down -1.2%, currently trading near $3,250.

ETH-based assets continue to lag behind BTC, with total inflows amounting to just $0.1 billion over the week of Jan 20-26, compared to $4 billion for BTC-based assets.

On the daily chart, ETH has been trading within the $3,000–$3,500 range and is currently testing its 100-day moving average. The $3,060 and $2,830 levels serve as key support zones, while resistance stands at $3,500 and $4,000 on the upside.

After gaining +90% in 2023 and +46% in 2024, ETH’s year-to-date (YTD) performance for 2025 currently stands at -2%.

Other markets

U.S. equities started the week with a sharp drop, led by heavy losses in tech stocks after the release of DeepSeek’s lower-cost AI model, which requires significantly less development capital than OpenAI’s $10 billion investment in its most advanced models, R1 and O1. NVIDIA plunged 17% on Monday. However, markets rebounded on Tuesday, buoyed by strong Big Tech earnings and the Fed's decision to keep rates steady, signaling a more measured stance on inflation. By Thursday, the S&P and Nasdaq closed near 6,070 and 19,680, respectively, as investors digested a weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP print (+2.3% vs. +2.6% forecast), with the VIX hovering around 15.8.

After ending 2023 up +24% and +43%, and 2024 up +28% and +29%, S&P and Nasdaq’s MTD performances and YTD are currently +2.6% and +1.8%.

DXY

DXY remains under scrutiny after US GDP missed expectations, with FX markets focused on upcoming US trade policy updates ahead of the Feb. 1 tariff deadline. The index struggles to reclaim the 108.00 level, with resistance at 109.30 and 110.20. Support holds at 107 though further downside could be tested. Traders also eye the potential Fed influence of Trump, which adds uncertainty to the outlook.

The outlook for the DXY remains strong with the start of the new presidency and looming tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which could provide momentum for the U.S. dollar. This comes despite ongoing structural bearish pressures from anticipated rate cuts heading into 2025. A "Goldilocks" scenario—where the U.S. economy avoids a slowdown—could further strengthen the dollar and help counteract these downward pressures.

US Treasuries

U.S. Treasury yields tumbled to their lowest levels this year as investors rushed to safe-haven bonds amid a sharp tech selloff. The 2-year and 10-year yields fell to 4.17% and 4.49%, respectively, reflecting heightened risk aversion. A weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP print (2.3% vs. 2.5% forecast) added to concerns over slowing economic momentum. Traders remain cautious following the Fed’s policy decision and its cautions stance on inflation, while uncertainty lingers ahead of Trump’s looming tariff deadline. Markets now price in a 47% chance of a 25bps rate cut by June 2025.

The 10Y yield is currently trading near 4.52% while the 2Y yield is evolving near 4.21%, confirming the end of the yield curve inversion.

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20/12/2024

Weekly Report CFT Thursday, December 19th, 2024

BTC and ETH ended last week in mixed order, with BTC continuing its ascent above $100,000, posting gains of +1.54% and clinching a second consecutive week of gains, while ETH shed -2.36%, struggling to recoup the losses incurred earlier in that week.

U.S. equities ended last week closed to flat, yet still reflecting the growth-value divergence among US stocks with S&P edging lower from its recent high of 6,100 near 6,050 while Nasdaq reached a new all-time high of 20,055 on Dec 11 – later surpassed this week by a fresh high of 20,205. The 2 indices recorded respectively – 0.6% and +0.3% on the week as investors digested the latest November CPI data coming in line with expectations at +2.7% yearly – Core +3.3 from October’s +2.6% – and monthly at +0.3% following October’s 0.2% while the tech sector was fuelled optimism around Google’s new Willow chip and Broadcom’s updated outlook. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones struggled and registered its eighth consecutive day of losses on Friday with a VIX index near 13.6.

However, both equity and cryptocurrency markets experienced a sharp downturn this week following hawkish comments from J. Powell on Wednesday and the Fed’s updated rate cut estimates. Expectations for 2025 were scaled back to two cuts from the previously anticipated four, alongside upward revisions to inflation and economic growth projections. BTC retreated from its new all-time high of $108,496 on December 17 to $99,900, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell -2.96% and -3.56%, closing at approximately 5,872 and 19,392, respectively.

U.S. Treasury yields spiked after the Fed signaled a slowdown in the pace of its monetary policy easing cycle. The 10-year yield climbed to a weekly high of 4.56%, a level last seen in May 2024, while the 2-year yield paused today at 4.32% after rising for eight consecutive days. Market expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in January currently stand at 16%.

DXY strengthened significantly this week, closing near 108.202 on Wednesday after hitting a two-year high of 108.269, a level last reached in November 2022. The index is consolidating around the 108 mark, with an ascending trendline providing support near 106.1 and resistance projected in the 109 zone.

Oil prices traded sideways this week, hovering near $70. Market uncertainty over China’s economic outlook and the potential for increased U.S. production under Trump has heightened fears of an oversupplied market, keeping prices under pressure.

Stocks are showing a modest recovery today, edging slightly higher, while cryptocurrencies continue to decline. BTC hit a low near $95,587 - on perpetual futures - and is currently trading near $97,750 while ETH trades around $3,420. As markets process the latest Fed guidance and corporate earnings from companies like Micron, Nike, FedEx, and Carnival, attention is turning to Friday's release of the November PCE index and an update on December's Consumer Sentiment report, key indicators ahead of the holiday season.

Client Update: Recent Trades & Market Outlook

Recent Actions

Today, we closed our short positions when BTC retraced below the $100,000 mark and continued its decline toward the $96,000 region. At this level, we opened small, long positions on select altcoins, including ETH, IMX, and INCH, increasing our market exposure to 10%.

Market Strategy

We are closely monitoring the $90,000, $80,000, and $75,000 levels for BTC, which we believe represent key opportunities to build larger long positions. For now, our strategy involves engaging in swing trades with limited exposure, while preparing for more aggressive allocations if BTC approaches these levels in the coming weeks or months.

Market Outlook

BTC may face a challenging period ahead, with signs of an overheating market and potential risks from a slowing U.S. economy. This could lead to a short-term correction as we approach 2025.

Additionally, we’ve observed an increase in USDT dominance, signaling a possible bearish phase as capital shifts into safer stablecoin assets. We remain vigilant and adaptable to market changes while positioning for strategic opportunities.

BTC

BTC ended last week up, continuing its ascent above $100,000, posting gains of +1.54% and clinching a second consecutive week of gains. Digital asset investment products recorded another week of inflows, reaching $3.2 billion last week, marking the 10th consecutive week of positive momentum. According to CoinShares’ Digital Asset Fund Flows report, total inflows for this year have now reached $44.5 billion.

This week, BTC reached a new all-time high of $108,496 on Dec 17 before tumbling on Wednesday following the Fed’s guidance. The cryptocurrency broke below $100,000, hit a low near $95,587 - on perpetual futures - and is currently trading near $97,750.

On the daily chart, BTC is currently testing support near the lower end of the parallel channel. In the coming days, it will be crucial to see whether BTC can hold above the $100,000 level or if a pullback towards the $91,000 zone occurs.

We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for BTC, supported by expectations of a favorable regulatory environment under Trump’s administration, increasing institutional adoption driving volume growth, and the Fed's rate cut cycle, which could encourage a shift toward riskier assets. However, we recognize potential signs of an overheating market and the risk of a slowing U.S. economy, which may lead to a short-term correction as we approach 2025.

Additionally, we observe an increase in USDT dominance, which could indicate a potential bearish phase in the coming weeks as capital shifts from cryptocurrencies into stablecoins.

After rounding up 2023 performance to +155%, BTC’s 2024 YTD performance is currently at +136%, while the MTD for December stands at +3.72%.

ETH

Unlike BTC, ETH ended last week with losses, trading near $3,900 on Friday and shedding - 2.36% as it struggled to recover from earlier declines. ETH started the new week with gains but tumbled alongside broader markets on Wednesday following the December Fed meeting.

Despite its disappointing performance, ETH-based assets continued to show strong momentum, recording a seventh consecutive week of fund inflows totalling $1 billion. Over the past seven weeks, inflows have reached $3.7 billion, bringing the year-to-date total to $4.4 billion.

On the daily chart, ETH broke below a major support level at $3,600, reaching a low of $3,325 today. The $3,060 and $2,800 levels currently serve as key supports, while the $4,000 zone acts as the nearest resistance in the upside.

After rounding up 2023 performance to +90%, ETH’s 2024 YTD performance is currently at +54%, while the MTD for December stands at -2.36%.

Other markets

U.S. equities ended last week closed to flat, yet still reflecting the growth-value divergence among US stocks with S&P edging lower from its recent high of 6,100 near 6,050 while Nasdaq reached a new all-time high of 20,055 on Dec 11 – later surpassed this week by a fresh high of 20,205. The 2 indices recorded respectively – 0.6% and +0.3% on the week as investors digested the latest November CPI data coming in line with expectations at +2.7% yearly – Core +3.3 from October’s +2.6% – and monthly at +0.3% following October’s 0.2% while the tech sector was fuelled by optimism around Google’s new Willow chip and Broadcom’s updated outlook. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones struggled and registered its eighth consecutive day of losses on Friday with a VIX index near 13.6.

However, both equity and cryptocurrency markets experienced a sharp downturn this week following hawkish comments from J. Powell on Wednesday and the Fed’s updated rate cut estimates. Expectations for 2025 were scaled back to two cuts from the previously anticipated four, alongside upward revisions to inflation and economic growth projections. BTC retreated from its new all-time high of $108,496 on December 17 to $99,900, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell -2.96% and -3.56%, closing at approximately 5,872 and 19,392, respectively.

After ending 2023 up +24% and +43%, S&P and Nasdaq’s MTD performances for December are currently -2.7% and +0.9% with YTD performances standing at +23% and +29%.

DXY

DXY strengthened significantly this week, closing near 108.20 on Wednesday after hitting a two-year high of 108.27, a level last reached in November 2022. The index is consolidating around the 108 mark, with an ascending trendline providing support near 106.1 and resistance projected in the 109 zone.

The outlook for DXY remains strong and has been bolstered by the Fed’s recent hawkish remarks and the reduction in rate cut expectations for 2025. Additionally, we believe the incoming Trump presidency could provide momentum for the US dollar, despite the ongoing structural bearish pressures anticipated from further rate cuts heading into 2025. A "Goldilocks" scenario, where the US economy avoids a slowdown, could further strengthen the dollar and help counteract these downward pressures.

US Treasuries

U.S. Treasury yields spiked after the Fed signaled a slowdown in the pace of its monetary policy easing cycle and signs of persistent inflation reinforced with the release of in-line November's CPI data. The 10-year yield climbed to a weekly high of 4.56%, a level last seen in May 2024, while the 2-year yield paused today at 4.32% after rising for eight consecutive days. Market expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in January currently stand at 16%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

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