12/10/2026
For the first time in a good while, Australia's four biggest banks do not agree on where the cash rate is going. ANZ and Westpac both have one more increase pencilled in for November, which would take it to 4.85 per cent.
Commonwealth Bank and NAB think the peak is already behind us. Canstar's Sally Tindall put the risk plainly, warning there is a chance of "welcoming in 2027 with a cash rate of 4.85 per cent."
Fair enough that economists disagree. What is worth sitting with is who is disagreeing. These are four of the best-resourced forecasting teams in the country, watching the data like a hawk, with more information and more staff pointed at this question than anyone reading this has.
They are split down the middle on a decision that is four weeks away, and the gap between them is a quarter of a percentage point on the number that sets borrowing capacity for every buyer in the pipeline.
Here is why that matters more to a sales leader than to an economist. December-quarter targets and first-quarter 2027 plans are being signed off right now, and almost all of them carry a rate assumption buried somewhere in the conversion rate.
That assumption is usually one number, because a plan needs a number. But a single-point assumption produces a single-point target, and if the November decision lands the other way, the team gets judged against a target built on a bet nobody told them they were placing. Conversion did not fall. The premise moved.
The second-order cost is the response. A quarter that misses for a reason nobody has named gets diagnosed as a people problem, and the fix is a restructure that arrives just as the actual cause unwinds.
The practical read is this: build the quarter as two branches rather than one, brief the team on both now, and hold fire on territory changes or headcount calls until the November decision is known. Backing the wrong horse is survivable. Not knowing you backed one is not.
Which rate path is your December-quarter target actually assuming, and does your team know?
More to read here:
https://www.brokernews.com.au/news/breaking-news/anz-lifts-fixed-rates-again-as-big-four-pass-on-cash-rate-rise-290126.aspx