Epiphanic

Epiphanic I will post insights into Crypto happenings, Feel free to post and discuss things also. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCu60AHorZFMlgnGVMmP6igg

Nothing should be construed as financial advice, ALL posts are informal and general in nature.

Australian average house price down 85% in 3 years. Might crack 7 BTC soon, my guess for this cycle was 5 BTC.
08/10/2025

Australian average house price down 85% in 3 years. Might crack 7 BTC soon, my guess for this cycle was 5 BTC.

It has been a good few weeks for Bitcoin, It has been incredibly strong through this whole period. It looks like we are ...
24/04/2025

It has been a good few weeks for Bitcoin, It has been incredibly strong through this whole period. It looks like we are pulling back now, will be interesting to see whether we settle on support and carve out a higher low.

It's not really worth getting out of bed until we push up to 100k then test 90k as support.

This chart is the average price of Aussie houses in ounces of gold. 185 x $5,190 is $960k aud. If you saved in gold over...
24/04/2025

This chart is the average price of Aussie houses in ounces of gold. 185 x $5,190 is $960k aud. If you saved in gold over the last 3 years houses got 50% cheaper.

US dollar index, If it breaks to the downside stimulus happens globally. The chart is pretty neutral, we could bounce an...
17/04/2025

US dollar index, If it breaks to the downside stimulus happens globally. The chart is pretty neutral, we could bounce and have another cracks in a few months, we could break now.

Bitcoin vs NASDAQ percentage returns since Jan 2024. Both had the exact same % dip recently. Since Jan 2024 Bitcoin has ...
14/04/2025

Bitcoin vs NASDAQ percentage returns since Jan 2024. Both had the exact same % dip recently.

Since Jan 2024 Bitcoin has had 10:1 in appreciation and 1:1 in the recent drawdown vs the NASDAQ. pretty wild.

This is the NASDAQ vs GOLD. So the perceived value of technology measured in the oldest most stable measure of value tha...
08/04/2025

This is the NASDAQ vs GOLD. So the perceived value of technology measured in the oldest most stable measure of value that we have.

The .com hype was huge and computers/the internet were responsible for a big uptick in productivity and efficiency, but there was a hardware constraint. everyone needed to buy a computer and needed to migrate from armies of filing cabinets. that took until about 2010, which is also when smartphones come out and the internet got way better (also infrastructure).

since then the NASDAQ has gained against gold, which essentially means it's gains haven't just been the illusion of the dollar denominator falling.

AI capabilities have been accelerating at an absolutely fu***ng astounding pace. Using AI to train AI is fu***ng insane, you have no idea. You would think that AI is already over-hyped, but I absolutely guarantee you it is well under-hyped. The productivity gains from AI have been concentrated on a few industries, like software development- because the developers are naturally going to make tools for themselves. The productivity gains are hard to quantify because they are still accelerating so rapidly, they actually sound like crypto gains. imagine boosting your productivity at work by 5-10-20x, not just 5-10-20%.

AI compute is scaling in data centres, which is a critical factor. but we already have decent internet and devices, so the rails for the AI to be useful to us already exist to a large extent. This means we almost instantly get to benefit from advancements in the tech.

A big reason for the US imposing tariffs, reducing taxes, minimising red tape, and trying to keep innovation/manufacturing in the US is that they see this boom coming. A massive disadvantage of having research/innovation in the US and then outsourcing all the manufacturing to China, is that China gets all of the innovation for free. In return the US gets cheaper products momentarily, but then very quickly cheaper competitor products spin up out of nowhere. They also sacrifice US jobs and allow a weakening economy to subsist on cheaper imported products momentarily.

It might be a somewhat controversial statement but scaling AI as quickly as possible, potentially causing some extra carbon emissions in the very short term (within reason), will result in a way fu***ng faster transition to green energy and net zero. It will also drive the cost of energy and manufacturing way down.

long story short, I think tech will see a huge boom like in the 90s and we will start seeing it if not this year, in early 2027.

Here is the NAZDAQ monthly chart showing the last time trump was in office and imposed tariffs, vs today when almost the...
08/04/2025

Here is the NAZDAQ monthly chart showing the last time trump was in office and imposed tariffs, vs today when almost the same thing is happening.

There is also the NASDAQ weekly chart with some support lines, we might break the top one, I expect the bottom one to hold.

Comparing the Bitcoin and NASDAQ charts, Bitcoin's actually holding up pretty well.Looking back, the range of possible o...
05/04/2025

Comparing the Bitcoin and NASDAQ charts, Bitcoin's actually holding up pretty well.

Looking back, the range of possible outcomes for this year was (and still is) incredibly wide. There were a lot of potential events on the table, but the timing and sequence were huge unknowns.

Now that more details on new US policies have emerged, it seems like they got a lot of the potentially negative stuff out of the way early on.

Expect economic data to look skewed for this quarter and the next – a sh*tload of international trade was front-run over the last four months ahead of the tariffs. This could actually mean US inflation stays flat or even drops over the next 3-6 months as all that pre-tariff inventory gets sold off. We might also see the US dollar start to weaken from here.

Once the dollar drops enough, or some other things start to break, that's likely when the big global refinancing event happens – setting the stage for the juiciest of gainz.

IMO we are tracking the best path for crypto gainz, I think this dip/bear phase is close to it's bottom, or has bottomed already. I am not sure whether a V shaped recovery is on the cards, or whether we f**k around for a bit.

TLDR the outlook the mid-long term is bright, especially for crypto. Don't lose your resolve, don't give in to bear porn/brainwash social media news narratives.

Sale on, average in in times like these. I don't know the timing, but i know moon cometh this year. Don't indulge in bea...
18/03/2025

Sale on, average in in times like these. I don't know the timing, but i know moon cometh this year. Don't indulge in bear po*******hy.

07/03/2025

Breaking:

US announces strategic beanie baby reserve

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