04/10/2026
People bet more than $50 billion in a single month on what happens next.
Prediction markets are simple: a "yes" share pays $1 if something happens and nothing if it doesn't. So the price is the crowd's probability. 18 cents = an 18% chance.
On Friday, after a weak US jobs report, traders on Kalshi cut the odds of an October Fed hike from 70% to 18% within hours.
The World Cup made them mainstream. Kalshi is reportedly raising at around $40B. Polymarket was valued at $21B in August.
And it gets messy: a US soldier was charged with betting on Maduro's capture using classified information, and 44 US states say sports contracts are just gambling.
Market or bet? Swipe through and decide.
MKX
Crypto assets are volatile and may lose value in full or part. You may lose all capital invested. Not financial advice. Not a solicitation.