12/15/2025
** 1 minutes read****
Hello my friends and clients.
A little read, as some of you have been actively asking me for information that helps us see what CAN be our future for the end of 2025 and for the first quarter of 2026.
As we know, the markets—including the BOND market (ask me what this is or see previous posts)—all have impacts.
Even though this is happening, Canada seems to be resilient but stale.
The Prime Rate of 4.45% and the Variable Rate of 3.60% reflect a stable but quiet Toronto real estate market as of December 2025.
The market is generally in a "freeze," with stalled sales, abundant inventory, and prices drifting lower, particularly for condos.
Q1 2026 Overview for Toronto
The market is expected to fracture based on property type, with ground-level homes facing a supply squeeze and condos facing investor pressure.
As my clients know, who are attempting to sell their Condos or Townhomes in areas that are not hot.
For Sellers:
Freehold/Detached: Conditions favour a slight seller's advantage, anticipating price growth of 5-7% for turnkey homes due to pent-up demand and limited supply ("The Squeeze").
Condos: Expect a balanced or buyer's market, with continued price pressure as investors list units amid flattening rents and the "Renewal Cliff" (higher mortgage renewal costs). This trend is primarily noticeable in the more active areas, such as Hospital Row and near the lake.
For Buyers:
Q1 is a strategic window to purchase before the traditional spring market activity.
Freehold/Detached: Buyers should move early to secure a property before competition increases.
Condos: They are most favoured, with 2026 potentially being the year of the "Condo Deal" as prices are expected to remain flat or dip. However, for those selling, as noted, it is still not an opportune time.
I like to ensure I am correct in my predictions along with all data points and advise based on the market whether to buy or sell. So, with my strong relationships with my amazing clients, I have asked one or two not to list. This is an approach a Realtor must follow—be upfront and correct.
Thank you all, and I wish you a wonderful Holiday Season.
Mike the Realtor